Brad’s Best Bets – Soccer Slate 6/20 – 6/21
As Leicester City finds themselves placed 3rd on the Premier League table, they head to Vicarage Road to take on 17th placed Watford. The match between the two clubs back in December was a one-sided affair. Leicester was dominant in every aspect of the game. They held advantage in possession, shots and shots on target. They ended up winning the match 2-0. For some teams, much like Leicester City, the break could not have come at a more perfect time. Leicester was in poor form, only winning in two matches out of their last six. The break was also a chance for them to get healthy and refocus their energy as they continue their push for Champions League qualification. Watford is towards the bottom of the league in goals allowed this season, allowing an average of 1.52 goals per game, while only scoring on average, 0.92 goals per game. Their goal differential of -17 is 4th worst in the EPL. Bad news for them, they play a team who is 3rd in both points for and against. Leicester City’s Jamie Vardy looks to keep a firm grasp on the Golden Boot, vs a team who is not shy about letting the opposition score. This matchup will another one-sided game with Leicester dominating possession. Great value at +105 for a 2 unit bet on the team who is clearly the better of the two.
With just two weeks left in the Bundesliga, we have the benefit of having all 9 game being played at the same time for two weeks in a row. When you are winding down the season, there are games that mean something for some and nothing for others. A few games stood out where we could possibly get some value if the other team decides to sit their stars and see what they have for the future. Although this is not an official play of mine, I could understand backing Leipzig ML at +125 vs Dortmund who will mostly sit banged up players like Erling Haalnd and Thomas Delany and give young players a solid look like 17-year-old Giovanni Reyna. The game will most likely hit the over 3 goal total that was set. The game we will look to take advantage of is Wolfsburg at Schalke. Schalke is coming off a devastating defeat at the hands of Frankfurt, a game where they did not play poorly and found the back of the net in the second half. Let’s remember Schalke have not been victorious in over 14 games, and this game will be no different. Schalke has nothing to play for as they are out of contention for Europa League qualification and are safe from relegation. To make matters worse for Schalke they are still down their top two scorers, Suat Serdar and Amine Harit. While Wolfsburg could use these 6 points in the next two weeks to secure their spot in the Europa League. Wolfsburg is in a great spot to pounce on a victory here, they play a team who might not even get off the bus. I would like this matchup during the middle of the season, now I like it more when one side has nothing to play for.
When betting moneylines in soccer you always must find the best value possible. Find spots that give you good ROI and leave those without decent ROI alone. This matchup between Crystal Palace and Bournemouth is a chance for us to capitalize on a good value opportunity. Yes, Crystal Palace has only won 10 games, and yes, they are not keen on scoring often. But lucky for them, Bournemouth are awful and have a goal differential of -18 and allowing 1.62 points per game. This is a game where with the three-way moneyline I’d give it a 48% chance to win. If you are looking for value on a virtual coin flip, you are in the right place. Crystal Palace owns the loan goal between the two for the season. Crystal Palace was on a roll before the halt in play, winners of their last 3 games. Good spot to get a solid payday here. If you are not willing to jump aboard the ML play, there is still great value in Crystal Palace pk at +110, which means if CP wins you win, if they tie you get your money back.