Sam's Par 5 - PGA Bets
Tournament: Travelers Championship
Course: TPC River Highlands
All Current Odds are via DK Sportsbook
Welcome to the Travelers Championship and welcome to my weekly betting piece. I focus a lot of time on the DFS side of things for Golf but I have actively bet outrights/props/Top 5s, 10s, and 20s for many years as well as Golf is one of the biggest “bang for your buck” sports to bet on in the world. Albeit not as likely, each year it seems we see either a 300/1 or even 500/1 winner on the PGA Tour and hitting just one of those can pay for your next few YEARS of golf betting.
It is a different strategy than most sports and managing your bankroll and understanding reasonable ROI is key. What do I mean by that? Most weeks I will be placing outright bets on guys who might be 25/1 at the lowest or up to 150/1, or higher. Picking 1 golfer out of the normal field of 156 to win is extremely difficult in itself so we have to temper our expectations and while we want to hit winners and do our due diligence every week, hitting a winner weekly just isn’t going to happen. However, when we do hit, it will pay for weeks, months, or even a year of profitability which makes the sport so fruitful. By playing a few units per week we can go from down 10 units to up 60 (net) with one golfer. Please let me know if you have anything in specific you want to see in this article moving forward but my plan is to give out a lower number, or two, outright bet and follow up with a few Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 bets that I like as well. Hit me up in our BetKarma discord at any time if you want to pick my brain about anything!
Recap: Well I picked Webb in my OAD (one and done) pool but didn’t bet him… SMART! Overall down week as Kisner never really got it going, including missing a couple short putts to not even make the cut, while DJ had a few bad holes himself (triple on day 1), to never really be in contention. Hindsight is always 20/20, but if I had known we would get a winning score at -20 or better, I probably wouldn’t have bit on Hadwin as I like him to win in somewhat weaker fields where yes he can go low, but probably not that low against some of the best players in the world. We did get some money back with the H2H as Varner missed the cut, but ultimately a disappointing week and we will move on to ANOTHER loaded field at TPC River Highlands!
RBC Heritage: -2.5 units
YTD: +57.8 Units
We have a little less to go on since he didn’t play last week, but I think this is a great price for someone who has excelled at comparable courses and actually looked much better than his MC 2 weeks ago. Leishman had a horrific triple on his first hole and never really got it back, but he gained 3.9 strokes on APP over 2 days but lost 2.7 Around the Green and another 2.1 putting to take himself out of it. I said in my DFS article, as well as above in quick facts, that comp courses I like are Riviera, Torrey Pines, and Pebble Beach… Leish won Farmers (Torrey Pines) back in January. Further, he’s had solid success at TPC River Highlands with a win back in 2012 as well as finishes of 21st/17th/9th/11th over the last 8 attempts.
Gary Woodland – 55/1 (1 Unit)
I always favor Gary on any shorter course because it takes the driver out of his hands and he can just hit the fairway with that stinger all day long. He keeps having 1 or 2 holes per round that just blows him up, but the ball striking is there as he ranks 1st in Approach in the field and over the last 2 tournaments has gained 8.8 and 2.7 strokes on Approach and is actually in the midst of a strong putting streak. Further, Woodland ranks 25th in SG: Ball Striking, 5th in Opportunities Gained (FantasyNational.com stat), 9th in GIRs Gained, and 4th in Par 4 Birdies or Better. Love the value we’re getting here.
In the past year, Homa has finished 9th at the Farmers (Torrey Pines) and 5th at Riviera and has continued his good ball striking post-COVID. Last week he gained over 6 strokes on APP, over 6 T2G, and lost a combined 6.4 strokes Around the Green and putting… He doesn’t have any history to speak of here, but I think this is a solid value for a guy who’s hitting it well and has shown his propensity to win in strong fields (Wells Fargo in 2019).
I don’t normally like dipping this low for Top 20, but I like Scheffler a ton this week with how good of a ball striker he is and his ability to go low (maybe even make eagles on these 2 Par 5s). He ranks 20th in the field in Ball Striking, and despite his lackluster finish at Charles Schwab (T55), he gained 3 strokes on Approach and 2 strokes T2G while losing over 6 strokes (similar to Homa) around the green and putting. I think he’s one of the best young talents on TOUR right now and I expect a high finish this week.
Hate to bet against one of my favorite guys, but I think this is great value for Scheffler. Conners is an elite ball striker but looked a little shaky the last 2 days of the RBC Heritage. If he doesn’t hit the greens, he has a very weak short game that can get him into trouble. I like Scheffler’s ability to Scramble a little better (albeit not an amazing putter either) as well as Scheffler’s go low ability over Conners.