Sam's Par 5 - PGA Bets
Tournament: Rocket Mortgage Classic
Course: Detroit Golf Club
All Current Odds are via DK Sportsbook
Welcome to the Rocket Mortgage Classic and welcome to my weekly betting piece. I focus a lot of time on the DFS side of things for Golf but I have actively bet outrights/props/Top 5s, 10s, and 20s for many years as well as Golf is one of the biggest “bang for your buck” sports to bet on in the world. Albeit not as likely, each year it seems we see either a 300/1 or even 500/1 winner on the PGA Tour and hitting just one of those can pay for your next few YEARS of golf betting.
It is a different strategy than most sports and managing your bankroll and understanding reasonable ROI is key. What do I mean by that? Most weeks I will be placing outright bets on guys who might be 25/1 at the lowest or up to 150/1, or higher. Picking 1 golfer out of the normal field of 156 to win is extremely difficult in itself so we have to temper our expectations and while we want to hit winners and do our due diligence every week, hitting a winner weekly just isn’t going to happen. However, when we do hit, it will pay for weeks, months, or even a year of profitability which makes the sport so fruitful. By playing a few units per week we can go from down 10 units to up 60 (net) with one golfer. Please let me know if you have anything in specific you want to see in this article moving forward but my plan is to give out a lower number, or two, outright bet and follow up with a few Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 bets that I like as well. Hit me up in our BetKarma discord at any time if you want to pick my brain about anything!
Recap: Bad week for me in DFS and bad week on the bets; I really had confidence in that Scheffler number for a Top 20 but he missed the cut on the number after bogeying both Par 5s on Friday (gross) and just could never find the putter. The Leishman bet looked very live after Friday but I’m not quite sure what happened on the weekend… anyone? We technically got 1 unit back as Scheffler beat out Conners despite both missing the cut but a down week… but hey, we have hit several winners so if you’ve been tailing we are still WAY WAY up but lets get some more live sweats this week at the Rocket Mortgage!
RBC Heritage: -4 units
YTD: +53.8 Units
Well I don’t like Kevin Na and I don’t like betting Kevin Na… but you can’t let biases curb your betting or DFS play. Last week Na looked healthy (I THINK/HOPE?) and struck it well, gaining 4.7 T2G, 2.2 on APP, and 5.6 Putting to ultimately finish T5. At the Charles Schwab, he gained 2.5 T2G, 2 on APP, and lost strokes putting, but I like how he’s striking his irons for a course whereas we saw last year you need to stick everything from 125-175 and grab a hot putter. He didn’t play this course last year, but I don’t think history will be overly important; this number has dropped to 35/1 on DK Sportsbook but if you shop, I’m sure you can find 35 to 40/1 in most places.
Excellent Donald Ross player? Check. Ranks #1 in the field on Poa/Bent mix? Check. Looked atrocious last week with his irons? Check. I’m not going to weight his performance last week TOO much despite it not looking good as long term Sneds ranks 11th in the field in Par 4 BoB %, 27th in BoB/Eagles and has been known in his career to excel on Donald Ross designs. As mentioned above with Na, you need to get your irons going, grab a hot-fire putter, and you can compete… which I think Sneds has all the tools to do so and compete in a weaker field than the last few.
I’m all over Tyler Duncan this week in both outright bets and DFS. He has struck the ball fantastic the first few tournaments back, making all 3 cuts and gaining strokes on APP and T2G in all 3 as well. He is not a great putter, but in a weaker field, similar (somewhat) to the field he won at the RSM back in November, if he can grab a hot putter and continue his iron play, I love this longshot number.
Hasn’t looked as good as some other guys since the break, but I believe in Davis’ long term talent and he excels on Par 5s; with 4 this week, I wanted to look at more than what I believe is a flawed stat in “Par 5 scoring.” Davis is first in this field in “Going for the Green in 2” %, going for it at nearly an 80% clip, and with 3 of the 4 being reachable for most of the field, I think that could be a differentiator here. Per his longer-term stats, Davis ranks 13th in SG:BS, 14th in Opportunities Gained (FantasyNational stat), 19th in Par 4 BoB, and 12th in overall BoB/Eagles. I like this value for a Top 20 and hope he can find the putter on what is his best surface (Bent).