Sam's PGA Bets - 2020 Workday Charity Open

Tournament: Workday Charity Open

Course: Muirfield Village

All Current Odds are via DK Sportsbook

Fast Facts

• Par 72 approx. 7450 yards
• Fast Bentgrass/Poa Greens approx. 5000 sq. ft. (approx. TOUR average)
• First of 2 back to back events here with this week’s version featuring a few longer holes, shorter rough, slower greens, and a drivable 14th hole on the weekend
• Field: 157 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut
• Average Cut (Memorial Tournament): +2
• Average Winning Score (Memorial Tournament): -14
• Corollary Courses: Augusta National, Bay Hill, Glen Abbey, TPC Boston
• Course Fit Targets: Rickie Fowler, Marc Leishman, Justin Rose, Byeong Hun An, Matt Kuchar, Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day

Welcome to the Workday Charity Open and welcome to my weekly betting piece. I focus a lot of time on the DFS side of things for Golf but I have actively bet outrights/props/Top 5s, 10s, and 20s for many years as well as Golf is one of the biggest “bang for your buck” sports to bet on in the world. Albeit not as likely, each year it seems we see either a 300/1 or even 500/1 winner on the PGA Tour and hitting just one of those can pay for your next few YEARS of golf betting.

It is a different strategy than most sports and managing your bankroll and understanding reasonable ROI is key. What do I mean by that? Most weeks I will be placing outright bets on guys who might be 25/1 at the lowest or up to 150/1, or higher. Picking 1 golfer out of the normal field of 156 to win is extremely difficult in itself so we have to temper our expectations and while we want to hit winners and do our due diligence every week, hitting a winner weekly just isn’t going to happen. However, when we do hit, it will pay for weeks, months, or even a year of profitability which makes the sport so fruitful. By playing a few units per week we can go from down 10 units to up 60 (net) with one golfer. Please let me know if you have anything in specific you want to see in this article moving forward but my plan is to give out a lower number, or two, outright bet and follow up with a few Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 bets that I like as well. Hit me up in our BetKarma discord at any time if you want to pick my brain about anything!

Recap: Terrible week from a betting perspective as Kevin Na WD in round 2 (classic Kevin Na), Sned had a horrific putting performance on his Thursday front nine (as well as a 4 putt on a par 5 on Friday) to take himself out of it early, and Duncan faltered on the weekend after a strong showing on Thu/Fri. The one that hurt bad though was Cam Davis needing to par his final hole on Friday to make the cut after a solid day but instead hit a terrible chip to bogey and miss it by 1. So it goes, and although we’re still way up on the year it’s time to get those units back up above 50 in aggregate.

RBC Heritage: -5.5 units
YTD: +48.3 Units

 

Hideki Matsuyama – 17/1 (1.5 Units)

 

Looked like he shook off the rust last week after a piss-poor performance in his return 2 weeks ago and is now at a track he’s had great success in the past with a win, 2 Top 6s, and a 13th in 6 attempts. Always an elite ball striker, Hideki is one of the best in the world on approaches, paramount to succeed here, and despite being a horrific putter he’s decent in SG: Around the Green… I think he ends his drought.

 

Adam Hadwin – 50/1 (1 Unit)

 

This seems too low for a guy like Hadwin but he’s consistently a great putter, has gained on SG: APP in all 3 events since the restart, and is on his best putting surfaces (Bent/Poa). If he keeps his consistent putter and avoids the thick rough off the fairways, he can make enough birdies to get to the -18 or -20 range that I expect the winner to be on Sunday.

 

Bud Cauley Top 10 – 8/1 (1 Unit)

 

Bud is never a very exciting play as at times it seems like he’s just saving par and not scoring, at least on DraftKings. I like his Top 10 upside as he finished runner up here in 2019 and ranks 4th in the field in Scrambling when he does miss the green. His stats won’t pop as he has limited rounds in the last few tournaments including a forced WD with a cautionary COVID case, but he did gain almost 3 strokes on APP at the RBC Heritage a few weeks ago but couldn’t putt very well.

 

Adam Long Top 10 – 16/1 (1 Unit)

 

Extremely volatile player as he seemingly has a good 3 days or so out of 4 or just starts off poorly and misses the cut by 1000 shots. However, Long does rank 1st in this field in Scrambling, 15th in Par 4s from 450-500 (6 of them this week) and has the ability to get hot and make a run of birdies. His most recent start he finished 24th at the Travelers, gaining on APP all 4 days.

 

Max Homa Top 20 – 4/1 (2 Units)

 

I keep betting Homa and playing him in DFS waiting for him to pop and return to the fire form he had before the COVID break and hoping it comes here. Homa has 3 Top 10s in 2020, 3 Top 25s and has gained strokes on APP in every tournament since the Farmers with the exception of his first tournament back at the Charles Schwab. His around the green game can be shaky but if he continues his strong APP/T2G play, I see no reason he doesn’t have at least Top 20 upside or better…

 

Henrik Norlander Top 20 – +550 (2 Units)

 

He’s about to be chalk on DraftKings which could be the ultimate chalk bomb, but he led the field in T2G last week and is riding some solid, solid form/stats. He has gained 3.6/0.8/8.3 strokes on APP in each of the 3 tournaments he’s played and gained 4.5/2.4/8.6 T2G on top of it. The main concern is that he’s a terrible putter, but if he can putt even average (i.e. Hideki/Benny An every week), he can absolute storm up the leaderboard with his elite iron play.

 

Maverick McNealy Top 10/20 – 11/1 and 5/1 (0.5 Units on each)

 

McNealy was in awesome form prior COVID and after 2 kind of blah tournaments, he looked great at the Rocket Mortgage, gaining 1.5 strokes on APP and finishing T8. His best putting surfaces in his short career by far are Bent and Poa so if he can continue his consistency there and build off last weeks performance, I like him going back to back top 10s or at minimum, a Top 20 finish.

 

Justin Rose > Brooks Koepka – +110 (2 Units)

 

I like Rose as an outright, but I missed a solid number, so I’ll take his matchup against Brooks instead. Rose had a horrific Friday 2 weeks ago to miss the cut and burn a lot of people, but ever since he came back and switched off of those Honma irons, he’s gained in 7/10 rounds on APP all while having a somewhat cold putter (save a few days). In his career at Muirfield, he has a win, 2nd, 6th, 2 Top 8s, and a 13th, clearly showing some comfortability here. I know Brooks can pop and win any tournament, but his irons haven’t looked great and I think there’s solid value with Rose here.