Brad’s Best Bets – Soccer Slate 7/22 – 7/24

Bet Karma Soccer Record: 98-67-10 (+49.47 units)

 

Udinese vs Juventus -1

Fun fact, the plural of scudetto is scudetti. Second fun fact, Juventus are on the verge of winning their 9th straight scudetto. I guess you could say they have won plenty of scudetti in the past decade. Ronaldo and Juventus travel to Udine to take on 16th placed Udinese this Thursday. To me this is close to a max play as you will be getting positive odds for -1. If you look at the matchup history between the two teams, you would notice Juventus has had a tremendous amount of success against their opponents. The last time Udinese has picked up a result against Juve was March 5th, 2017. In the past four matches between the two sides Juventus has outscored Udinese 15 to 2, leaving them without a goal in 3 of the 4 matches. We are getting a favorable line here because Juventus has not been all that brilliant as of late losing to Milan 4-2 then following that up with draws against both Atalanta and Sassuolo. But if you watched their performance against Lazio, you would have full confidence in this bet. Maurizio Sarri seemed to have gotten in his teams’ ear about constantly pressing and not retreating when you lose possession. Their constant pressure gave Lazio fits all game, and frankly, Lazio was lucky to have scored. Juventus is fortunate to play a side that is less skilled than Lazio. In fact, Udinese have only won 3 games since the restart. Only worry I have in this matchup is Udinese often plays conservative, which could lead to a 1-0 game and a push on our bet. But if you think Udinese is getting a point out of the reigning Serie A Champions, fade this pick.

Bet Juventus -1 (+105) for 3 units

 

SPAL vs Roma -1.5 & -2.0

This is an interesting matchup from a betting standpoint. Personally, I would like to take Roma -2 for +$ instead of paying an extra 20 cents when I think Roma wins this game 3-0. If the correct score prop was higher than +800, I would consider taking it. But the risk is not worth the reward. I will play this game two ways, one the safer of the two options. I will take Roma -1.5 (-120) for 2 units and Roma -2 (+135) for 1 unit. These bets are essentially a fade of the already relegated last place SPAL. Since the restart SPAL has not won a game and have only picked up a result in one game in a 2-2 thriller vs AC Milan. Let me put this plainly, SPAL are terrible. They are not only ranked last, but they are the proud owners of the worst goal differential in Serie A. With SPAL already relegated they do not have much more than pride left to play for. On the other hand, you have Roma who are playing for a result. A win here jumps them over 5th placed Milan nestled in the Europa League spot. With team budgets cuts, making Europa league is huge, the team could use the money and would want to attract top talent in the offseason.

Bet Roma -1.5 (-120) or 2 units and -2.0 (+135) for 1 unit

 

2-unit bets: Inter/Fiorentina o3 goals, Manchester United/ West Ham o3 goals

 

1-unit bets: Inter -1.25, Sampdoria +150, Lazio -1