Sam's PGA Bets - 2020 3M Open

Tournament: 3M Open

Course: TPC Twin Cities

All Current Odds are via DK Sportsbook

Fast Facts

• Par 71 approx. 7450 yards
• Bentgrass Greens (12 on the stimp; average); 6500 sq. ft. greens on average (larger)
• Field: 156 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut
• Second year on TOUR
• Very high GIR% rate (almost 75% compared to TOUR average 63%
• Water on 14 holes (27 hazards total); 72 total bunkers
• 2019 Cut: -3
• 2019 Winning Score: -21
• Corollary Courses: TPC Boston, Bay Hill, PGA West
• Course Fit Targets: Dustin Johnson, Emiliano Grillo, Paul Casey, Keith Mitchell, Matthew Wolff (2019 winner), Troy Merritt, Lucas Glover, Hudson Swafford, Charley Hoffman, Sam Burns

Welcome to the 3M Open and welcome to my weekly betting piece. I focus a lot of time on the DFS side of things for Golf but I have actively bet outrights/props/Top 5s, 10s, and 20s for many years as well as Golf is one of the biggest “bang for your buck” sports to bet on in the world. Albeit not as likely, each year it seems we see either a 300/1 or even 500/1 winner on the PGA Tour and hitting just one of those can pay for your next few YEARS of golf betting.

It is a different strategy than most sports and managing your bankroll and understanding reasonable ROI is key. What do I mean by that? Most weeks I will be placing outright bets on guys who might be 25/1 at the lowest or up to 150/1, or higher. Picking 1 golfer out of the normal field of 156 to win is extremely difficult in itself so we have to temper our expectations and while we want to hit winners and do our due diligence every week, hitting a winner weekly just isn’t going to happen. However, when we do hit, it will pay for weeks, months, or even a year of profitability which makes the sport so fruitful. By playing a few units per week we can go from down 10 units to up 60 (net) with one golfer. Please let me know if you have anything in specific you want to see in this article moving forward but my plan is to give out a lower number, or two, outright bet and follow up with a few Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 bets that I like as well. Hit me up in our BetKarma discord at any time if you want to pick my brain about anything!

Recap: Finally got back on the horse as we hit Rahm for our 6th winner since the swing season and packed on some more winnings with the English Top 20 (very close to the T10 as well) and an easy matchup win of Cantlay over Bryson. I knew Rahm was close to a win and despite his massive lead, I was nervous on Sunday with the extreme conditions and his propensity to get in his head… he held steady and despite that complete BS penalty after the round won comfortably and reached #1 in the world. I’m glad my sucker bet of Ryan Moore continued to fail as he looked solid on Day 1 and then just fell apart worse and worse through the weekend to finish in the range of T40 or worse. Still, great tournament to get those overall units back up as we’re up just shy of 60 on the season! Onto a very, very weak field…

Memorial Tournament: +23.7 units
YTD: +58.7 Units

Earlier bets in the week:

Erik Van Rooyen 45/1 (1 Unit)

Max Homa 60/1 (1 Unit)

Harris English 35/1 (1 Unit)

 

Sam Burns – 45/1 (1 Unit)

 

This bet doesn’t feel as good because similar to EVR, it seems like everyone and their mother is betting this and just based on narrative, how often does a massive Twitter community bet work out? Burns I think has been close to a win for a long time and has the massive birdie and eagle upside that we’re looking for at TPC Twin Cities. He ranks 2nd in Opportunities Gained (stat per FantasyNational.com that tracks approaches to 15 feet or less), 20th in SG: Off-The-Tee, 10th in Birdie-or-Better and Eagles Gained, and 17th in SG: Ball Striking. He has all the tools to compete, has been playing well as he ranks 7th in SG: Total over the last 6 events and can storm the field if he finds the putter.

 

Sam Ryder – 90/1 (0.5 Units)

 

I’ve always been a fan of Ryder and while he isn’t a household name and doesn’t hold the pedigree of some guys who are a few years off the Korn Ferry, he does have massive birdie upside. Ryder ranks 13th in SG: BS, 26th in SG: Approach, 22nd in SG: OTT, 25th in BoB/Eagles, and 10th in SG: Putting on Bentgrass. Ryder has gained with his irons in the last 2 events and quietly finished T7 at the Workday Charity Open 2 weeks ago in what I think could be a similar scoring fest. Love the value here as Ryder looks to capture his 1st win on TOUR.

 

Adam Schenk Top 10 and Top 20 – 9/1 and 4/1 (1 Unit Each)

 

I don’t think I’ve ever written up, or bet, Adam Schenk until this week but in a weak field we have to find some value guys somewhere. Schenk has gained in SG: OTT in his last 6 tournaments, ranks #1 in the field in that category, and is coming off of 2 Top 40 finishes in much strong fields. He has gained on APP and T2G and normally an above average putter, he lost strokes putting in both events. He tends to get very hot or very cold so we’ll know early on, but I like these odds when factoring in my probability for his T10 and T20 finish.

 

Richy Werenski Top 10 – 9/1 (1 Unit)

 

Another name I never thought I would write up, but Werenski gained 6.3 strokes on APP at the workday, 6.2 T2G and in an event that doesn’t have a loaded field up top, Werenski can definitely ball strike his way into the Top 10. His preferred putting surface is Bent and when looking at his average strokes gained on different course types, he excels much better in birdie fests compared to conditions like last week where you need to grind out pars. 18th in SG: APP, 13th in BoB/Eagles, and 16th in SG: Putting on Bent gives me some confidence in this number.

 

Chase Seiffert Top 20 – +450 (1 Unit)

 

We’re dealing with a much smaller sample size with Seiffert, but his irons since the swing season have been LIGHTS OUT, as he gained on APP in every single week since the RSM and T2G in every event except one. He has the ability to get hot with the putter, his best surface is Bentgrass and if he can hit the driver at least average, he has at least Top 20 or better upside.

 

Scott Stallings > Troy Merritt – +105 (1 Unit)

 

I think we’re getting some value on Stallings here as he rates out better than Merritt in every category except putting on Bent and I think Stallings is in better overall form. Stallings ranks 11th in both SG: BS and SG: APP, 18th in Opportunities Gained, and 6th in BoB/Eagles. Further, I like the consistency as Stallings has made all 4 cuts since the restart compared to Merritt who has missed two.

 

Richy Werenski > Talor Gooch – -106 (1 Unit)

 

I like Talor Gooch this week but when looking at these 2 guys, Werenski has made 4/4 cuts with a T21 and Gooch has a 17th, 43rd, a WD, and 3 MCs. Gooch has a great OTT game but has only gained on APP in 1 of his last 5 starts so while I think Gooch is a solid DFS play, I give an edge to Weresnki here.