Bales' Best NBA Bets (7/31/20)
Welcome to my newest edition of Bales' Best NBA Bets. In this article, I will outline my favorite bet for July 31, 2020. You can also find all of Bet Karma's staff bets through our NBA Premium Package.
The Sacramento Kings are an interesting team because of the depth of their rotation. They featured only 3 players that saw more than 30 minutes per game before the season was suspended. With that being said, they played 10 total players averaged more than 20 minutes per game while on the team.
Nemanja Bjelica was a large part of that rotation, but far from a focal point. He saw 28.5 minutes per game, ranking fifth on the team. He also ranks fifth on the team in rebounds (6.4) per game, although Eric Mika saw only 1 game with the team. A pair of other players ranked ahead of him are Marvin Bagley III and Alex Len, who won’t be taking the court tonight.
Bagley was a dominant player whenever healthy, but health has been a major issue. In only 13 games this season, he averaged 7.5 rebounds and a 16.4% rebounding rate in only 25.7 minutes per game. Len only recently joined the team, playing 9 games. He averaged 7.1 rebounds and a team-high 24.1% rebounding rate in 16.7 minutes per game. Losing Bagley and Len for this contest will open the door for plenty of rebounding opportunities for other players.
Without Bagley or Len on the court, Bjelica’s rebounding rate (12.8%) sits behind only Richaun Holmes (16.3%) and Harry Giles (15.5%). The latter is expected to play fewer than 20 minutes tonight, as he has consistently dealt with injuries throughout his career, limiting his time on the court. Holmes also isn’t expected to play more than 30 minutes in this game. This leaves the opportunity for Sacramento to run Bjelica as a small-ball center for a few minutes. Regardless, there won’t be one dominant rebounding option on the court, allowing Bjelica plenty of opportunities for success in this game.
Bjelica struggled to rebound the ball for a stretch of games, but that hasn’t been the case for quite some time. He posted 6+ rebounds in 25 of his last 33 games. He also posted 10+ rebounds in 6 of those games. His inconsistent rebounding antics game from earlier in the season and this total has yet to adjust to his “recent” success.
Bjelica gets a great matchup against the San Antonio Spurs tonight. They ranked 15th in pace before the shutdown and only 20th in rebounding percentage. Bjelica posted 6+ rebounds in both of their matchups in 2020, including 9 rebounds in only 19 minutes.
He’s expected to play minutes in the high-20s tonight, which is the only major concern. He has found success throughout the season in this role, though. He’ll be one of his team’s top rebounders in a plus matchup looking to beat a total that has yet to adjust to his success prior to the shutdown.
Bet 1.4 units on Nemanja Bjelica over 5.5 rebounds (-140) to win 1 unit
2020 NBA Season Record - 1-1 (+3.55 units)