Bales' Best NBA Bets (8/10/20)

Welcome to my newest edition of Bales' Best NBA Bets. In this article, I will outline my favorite bet for August 10, 2020. You can also find all of Bet Karma's staff bets through our NBA Premium Package. 

 

Indiana Pacers (+118) vs Miami Heat (-138)

Jae Crowder has performed well through five games in the bubble. He’s averaging 13.0 points on 7.6 shot attempts and 5.8 three-point attempts per game. Crowder has been ultra-efficient, as well, shooting 60.5% from the field and 58.6% from beyond the arc. He scored 15+ points in 3 of his last 4 games. 

Crowder has a few things working against him tonight, though. He’s due for quite a bit of shooting regression. While it seems shots are falling at a higher clip in the bubble, Crowder is shooting only 39.9% from the field and 33.9% from beyond the arc this season. Even if his numbers were to increase from the empty arena and lack of defense, it’s unlikely they’ll stay as high as they are. 

Crowder isn’t a big part of the offense. Excluding a 14 shot performance against the Toronto Raptors, he’s averaging only 6.0 shot attempts, 4.8 three-point attempts, and 1.0 free throw attempt per game in the bubble. The majority of his shots come as three-pointers, forcing him to shoot at a high rate to find double-digit points in a game. He’s made less than four three-pointers in two games in the bubble, scoring single-digit points in each game. 

Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic are expected to return tonight. Crowder has never been a major part of the offense, but his role could diminish a bit more tonight. Butler’s return will also likely lock Crowder into fewer minutes with a player like Tyler Herro pushing to get playing time after a near triple-double in his last game. 

Crowder gets a terrible matchup against the Indiana Pacers tonight. The Pacers and Miami Heat rank 17th and 19th (out of 22) in the bubble in pace. Indiana also ranks eighth in the bubble in defensive rating. They have held their opponents to the fourth lowest three-point percentage (34.4%) in the NBA this season. That percentage has also dropped to 33.3% in the bubble. This should end up being a slow, grind it out type of game. 

There’s always a chance that Crowder continues his ridiculous shooting from beyond the arc but in a tough matchup, I’ll bet against the player shooting only 33.9% from deep on the season. He’s their sixth scoring option (at best), who is only likely to find minutes in the mid- to high-20s tonight. While on the court, I expect Crowder to be focusing significantly more on defense than shooting with Butler back in the lineup. 

Bet 1.08 units on Jae Crowder under 11.5 points (-108) to win 1 unit

 

2020 NBA Season Record - 5-8 (-1.35 units)