Bales' Best NBA Bets (8/11/20)

Welcome to my newest edition of Bales' Best NBA Bets. In this article, I will outline my favorite bet for August 11, 2020. You can also find all of Bet Karma's staff bets through our NBA Premium Package. 

 

Houston Rockets (-132) vs San Antonio Spurs (+112)

The pace in the NBA bubble has increased quite a bit and two of the teams leading the way are the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs. Since the restart, they rank first and third in the league in pace. We can expect another blazing pace from these teams today, as well. 

Houston will be without James Harden and Eric Gordon while Danuel House is questionable. That trio is combining to average 12.6 rebounds per game with the majority of them coming from Harden. Harden also boasts a 9.2% total rebounding rate with House’s sitting at 7.3%. Austin Rivers is likely to find major minutes for Harden tonight, posting only a 5.5% total rebounding rate this season. Jeff Green could also see extended run, especially if House is out, although his rate is roughly the same as House’s. 

Harden’s absence will force Russell Westbrook into major minutes tonight. He ranks second on the team in total rebounding rate (11.6%) behind only Robert Covington (12.7%). He’s a guard that’s known for attacking the glass, allowing him to push for baskets in transition. On the season, Westbrook is averaging 8.0 rebounds per game and is likely to see more opportunities with Harden on the bench. 

The matchup is key here, though. San Antonio only ranked 15th in the NBA in pace but they’re utilized their young core in the bubble. That core has pushed the pace significantly more than the team has this season. Westbrook has played the Spurs twice this season, averaging 10.0 rebounds in 44.2 minutes per game. He posted 10 rebounds in each of those contests. While he may not see 40+ minutes tonight, he should be locked into the mid- to high-30s, and Westbrook will be relied upon to be one of the Rockets’ key rebounders without Harden.  

Bet 1.28 units on Russell Westbrook over 7.5 rebounds (-128) to win 1 unit

 

2020 NBA Season Record - 5-9 (-2.43 units)