Tournament: Wyndham Championship
Course: Sedgefield CC
All Current Odds are via DK Sportsbook
Welcome to the Wyndham Championship and welcome to my weekly betting piece. I focus a lot of time on the DFS side of things for Golf but I have actively bet outrights/props/Top 5s, 10s, and 20s for many years as well as Golf is one of the biggest “bang for your buck” sports to bet on in the world. Albeit not as likely, each year it seems we see either a 300/1 or even 500/1 winner on the PGA Tour and hitting just one of those can pay for your next few YEARS of golf betting.
It is a different strategy than most sports and managing your bankroll and understanding reasonable ROI is key. What do I mean by that? Most weeks I will be placing outright bets on guys who might be 25/1 at the lowest or up to 150/1, or higher. Picking 1 golfer out of the normal field of 156 to win is extremely difficult in itself so we have to temper our expectations and while we want to hit winners and do our due diligence every week, hitting a winner weekly just isn’t going to happen. However, when we do hit, it will pay for weeks, months, or even a year of profitability which makes the sport so fruitful. By playing a few units per week we can go from down 10 units to up 60 (net) with one golfer. Please let me know if you have anything in specific you want to see in this article moving forward but my plan is to give out a lower number, or two, outright bet and follow up with a few Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 bets that I like as well. Hit me up in our BetKarma discord at any time if you want to pick my brain about anything!
Recap: Came so close with Day… just couldn’t make enough putts but I’m glad it seemed like the process was right. Spieth… yikes, just continued to not find the fairway, Sergio continued to putt like trash, and Palmer had a weak first few days to not have much of a chance. I did end up betting English Top 10/Top 20 but didn’t officially put it in here so I won’t count it towards our YTD units. Palmer did end up beating Chez which was good but overall a meh week where a very top heavy/bunched leaderboard made Top 10s/Top 20s tough and all the studs making the cut made that even more difficult. Excited to still be well up for the year and onto the last event before the FedEx Cup playoffs!
WGC FedEx: -4 units
YTD: +59.4 Units
Quietly finished Top 10 last week by gaining over 4 strokes with his irons and putting extremely well which is the prototype for winning this event. When looking at comp courses and other Donald Ross designs, Rose rates out #2 as he has numerous Top 5 finishes at the Sony Open (Waialae), the TOUR Championship (East Lake), and long term is one of the better iron players in the world. We need a guy who can go low to the tune of -20 or lower and on these Bermuda Greens (his best putting surface historically), Rose is just the guy.
If you looked back over the last year or so, you wouldn’t believe it but Henley actually used to be an extremely good putter… Bermuda is by far his best putting surface, historically, and in my stat model for the week he ranks 1st in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green, 2nd in SG: Approach, 1st in Opportunities Gained (stat from FantasyNational.com), and if he could just putt average, he will be right in the mix as he’s gained over 4 strokes on APP in each tournament of his last 4.
Bermuda Burns! I feel like Burns is another young guy who has a win coming very, very soon and I love him at these odds in this field. He’s gained strokes T2G in 4 straight events, gained on Approach in his last 2 events, and has the “get hot” ability to go uber low and make enough birdies to win this event. There are still some studs up top so while I’ll go in on an outright, I love the Top 10/Top 20 numbers as well as if he’s not near the top he has the ability to fully backdoor with a strong finish on the weekend.
Maybe it’s a narrative only, but Euros have had decent success at this event with prior winners including Stenson, Sergio, Si Woo Kim, and hilariously, Arjun Atwal. Frittelli is a gamer and can make a TON of birdies when he gets hot, similar to when he shot his way up the leaderboard towards the beginning of the restart on Sunday and had the clubhouse lead for a few hours. He ranks 2nd in the field in T2G, 16th in SG: Approach, 1st in Birdies or Better, 20th in Opportunities Gained, and 30th in SG: Putting on Bermuda. I love his upside and I think this is a solid top 10 number (I also like the Top 20 as well).
Has he looked good in a long time? Certainly not; however, he at least is a former winner on tour, ranks 2nd in the entire field in SG: Putting on Bermuda, and in his most recent start gained strokes with his irons. This is definitely a longshot to even finish Top 20 given his form but he has been decent on Comp Courses with an 8th place finish at East Lake 2 years ago, and has a win and 13th at the Sony Open at Waialae in Hawaii. Hopefully Kizzire can find some form back this week and follow his 13th place in this event last year with another one or better!
I’m honestly still surprised Brooks hasn’t WD from this event, but I like the value we’re getting with Fleetwood here due to his recent form. His irons have been off since the restart, but long term, he’s an elite Approach player and now that he’s found a rhythm with his putter, I think this is the type of event where he can shine, make a ton of birdies, and finish near the top. I don’t see Brooks caring too much at this event (now he’s going to win) and I think we’re getting a good number on an elite Euro talent.