Brad’s Best Bets - Champions League Quarter Finals
Last week’s article featured a 4 unit win with Inter over Getatfe. This week we move to the Champions League quarter-final where we have Manchester City vs Lyon. Just as a heads up for future reference, when I see a line I really like early, I post it in the BetKarma Discord chat way in advance. When the line for Man City opened, I jumped on it immediately. With that being said, I am backing Manchester City -1.5 (-115), the line has moved since then and you now must pay (-135). Either way, I like still like it. With Lyon knocking out Serie A Champions, Juventus, bettors are backing them. Lyon plays a very defensive style of football. Problem they face is they play second leading Premier League goal scorers Manchester City. Lyon was a 1 goal underdog against Juventus and was lucky to have only lost by 1. If you watched the game, you would see Juventus dominated possession and the majority of the game. And the stat sheet showed Juventus won the possession game 62/38 and out shot them 16 to 6. Juventus’ lack of quality around the net and Memphis Depay’s penalty kick kept Lyon close enough to advance into the next round. Manchester City boasts an offense of very skilled scorers. Even without Sergio Aguero, Manchester City has one of the best offensive units in football. When you have players like, Raheem Sterling, Gabriel Jesus, and Kevin De Bruyne scoring is not difficult. Manchester City has scored at least 2 goals in 8 of their last matches and in the 2 games they scored less than 2 goals, they were held scoreless. Of those 8 games, they score 4 or more goals. When playing Manchester City, it is imperative you weather the early storm. This will not be the case for Lyon, as I feel they will concede early and will be playing from behind for the majority of the game. This will leave them open to the counter attack Manchester City is so good at. The seventh placed Lyon lacks the offensive production to keep this game close for a full 90 minutes. I have locked in this game as a 3-unit play.
Anytime scorer props can be fun, or they can be a nightmare if you’re solely value chasing. You could make an argument for chasing the value on Phil Foden at +205 or Kevin De Bruyne at +175. KDB is a proven ball striker who generally takes the penalty shot (or Sterling) if it comes down to it. And Foden is a promising young talent who has proved he can change the landscape of the game at any moment. For me, I need to focus on consistency and the other teams’ vulnerabilities. Raheem Sterling has been a bright light for the club since Aguero went down and has been on an absolute tear. Sterling has scored at least 1 goal in 4 out of his last 6 matches and has scored a total of 6 goals in that span. The pace Sterling brings allows him to get in behind the back lines of the defense. He has touch with the ball and quality around the net. Like I said before, if you want to chase value, go ahead and grab KDB. I will be placing a unit on Raheem Sterling Anytime Scorer.
Initially when I began to handicap this game, I didn’t look twice at the total. But the more I looked, the more I became intrigued. Lyon loves to play a controlled, holding game. They are content with the game ending 1-0. Which is exactly how the game finished after leg 1 of their match with Juventus. A few things to note in that first match against Juventus. Lyon had the luxury of playing at home in front of their fans. And they did not particularly dominate in that match either. Had Juventus had the quality that Manchester City has, that game would have been entirely different. There are a few quick facts that help me make my claim of over 3 total goals. In Manchester City’s last 3 Champions League games there has been at least 3 goals scored and in 14 of their last 17 games, they have score 2 or more themselves. I am sure many people will relish at the opportunity to take under 3 goals. But I am predicting a score line of 3-1 Manchester City.