Bales' Best NBA Bet (8/24/20)

Welcome to my newest edition of Bales' Best NBA Bets. In this article, I will outline my favorite bet for August 24, 2020. You can also find all of Bet Karma's staff bets through our NBA Premium Package. 

 

Indiana Pacers (+200) vs Maimi Heat (-245)

Malcolm Brogdon was a steady producer in the first two games of this series, averaging 19.5 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 9.5 assists in 38.5 minutes per game. He saw his minutes increase to 43 in his last game, though, scoring 34 points with 7 rebounds and 14 assists. 

Brogdon also played the Miami Heat twice before the playoffs, needing only 27.0 minutes per game to average 14.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 6.0 assists. His usage rating has been a bit all over the place but it has only dropped below 25% once in the playoffs. 

 He took over as a focal point of the offense in their last game, finding 17 shot attempts, 7 three-point attempts, and 8 free throw attempts. His 14 assists were a season-high, although he’s been in double-digits quite often throughout the season. I don’t expect Brogdon to replicate those assist numbers, but he is averaging 11.0 assists per game in this series and could find similar success today. 

His rebounding has been a bit more inconsistent in this series, recording only one in their first game. Since then, he has totaled 12 rebounds, which is what many have come to expect from him. Brogdon has posted 5+ rebounds in well over 50% of his games throughout the season while flashing double-digit potential. It isn’t the most likely scenario but Brogdon has the potential to triple-double, potentially giving him 20 rebounds and assists in this game. 

Brogdon struggled from the field in his first 2 games, scoring 17 and 22 points. He then shot 64.7% from the field, 57.1% from deep, and 1.000% from the line while scoring 34 points in his last game. He’s arguably the third option on the offense with Miami focusing more heavily on shutting down T.J. Warren and Victor Oladipo. If that’s the case again today, Brogdon should continue to take over. 

Brogdon isn’t generally known as a dominant scorer but it’s clear he’s looking to take over in the playoffs, as all top players do. He boasts 20+ point potential on any given night and if his shot is falling, he could nearly beat the total with only his points. 

The most important aspect of Brogdon at this point is his minutes played. He has played 43, 38, and 39 minutes in the first 3 games of this series. If the Indiana Pacers want to avoid being swept, they will need him to play around 40 minutes once again. He’s a do-it-all guard while on the floor, adding to his upside. 

I believe Brogdon’s success in this prop will more or less come from his scoring. If his shot is falling, he should easily exceed it. If it isn’t, there could be some problems. With that being said, if he can find 20 points, a reasonable number even if he isn’t shooting well, he has the versatility to add 15 rebounds and assists, as well. 

Bet 1.2 units on Malcolm Brogdon over 34.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-120) to win 1 unit

 

2020 NBA Season Record - 9-14 (-3.23 units)