The Super Bowl for Sports Bettors: 2020

Last year we featured THE article on how to win the SUPER BOWL of Sports Bettors – the SuperContest. This year we are doubling down and spreading the love! Move over Mr. Monopoly, we’re in a whole new world of pandemics, bleached veins and murder hornets – so anything is on the table for 2020. Welcome the upstart competitor Circa Millionaire to the fray, and let me tell you – they are here to stay. The SuperContest has even implemented quarterly prizes, just like Circa Millionaire had for their rookie year in 2019. Nothing like some quality competition to heat things up!

Let’s be candid, 2020 may be nuts in the NFL, and who the hell knows, based on how 2020 has gone, maybe  next month aliens storm our cities – but for now the Super Bowl for Sports Bettors is moving ahead – BOTH of them.

SUPER CONTEST MONEY

Besides the newly minted guaranteed $135,000 quarterly prize, the SuperContest will be doling out money to the top 100 finishers once again, with the winning percentage based on the number of $1,500 entries. This is a strategic benefit from year’s past on one hand because entries into the contest are going to be way down from last year’s 3,000+ and so there should be a greater chance to make it into the money and place high.

CIRCA MILLIONAIRE MONEY

Circa Millionaire is even MORE appealing to any serious NFL bettor this year because they have 3 million, yes, 3 MILLION DOLLARS guaranteed over the course of the year. First place is locked in at 1 million, and the quarterly prizes for 1st-4th are also guaranteed. Why is this such a big deal? The less entries the more money on the table to win! If Circa Millionaire does not fill up to cover the cost of their guarantee, the winners are all getting free money from the sportsbook. Now, the better question is WHY am I telling YOU this? I’m a giving person, what can I say. Besides, based on previous results, we were on the cusp of Circa Millionaire’s 1st ever quarterly prize of $150,000 and were a half game from the money (top 100) the year before in the SuperContest. To say, we are ultimately playing against ourselves, and if we can hit over our goal of 65%, we are very likely to cash and be right there in position to win it all.

QUICK HISTORY

In 2018’s SuperContest, we, Golconda Fund came in 101st place, finishing with a 61.9% winning percentage. Half a game out of the money – OUCH!

In 2019, we started the year hot! In Circa Millionaire, Golconda Fund-1 was in 4th place heading into week 4’s quarterly prize and had we gone 5-0, which we sadly did not, we would have won Circa Millionaire’s 1st ever 1st place quarterly prize and netted a cool $150,000.

How did 2019 end up? The good news is we did not finish below 50% in either competition. The bad news is we finished at exactly 50% in both competitions. That’s why we are going again in 2020, redemption, and sharing what we learned with you here now.

How to Turn a Profit in the SuperContest and Circa Millionaire

Brett and I evolved our sports betting tactics to mirror financial investment strategies over the last eight years. In 2018, we put our market strategy to the ultimate test and in 2019 we expanded into the Circa Millionaire. This year, we intend to push the envelope even further.

Why we see value in entering these contests is because, for example, if we entered the SuperContest each year over the next 20 years, we would be investing $30,000 over that time, or $1500 a year. All we need to do is to finish in 10th place once in 20 years to turn a 300% profit, or turn 30K into about 90K. And that's our targeted floor. Remember, we were 1 week from 150K last year and half a game from thousands in 2018. So, there’s hope coupled with what we presume to be a humble amount of skill. What is the ceiling? Last year's winner raked in 1.4+ million off a $1500 investment in the SuperContest and a million in Circa Millionaire. Needless to say, there is hefty upside, 93,000% of it.

Why should you consider entering the Super Contest or Circa Millionaire?

I'll be completely honest – I don't think most should enter if they cannot hit 65% in a given year or don't have the liquidity in their bank-roll. At least that is what I said last year. To be honest, if there is any year to consider entering either, it is in 2020. The influx of variables in the NFL make this season unlike any we have ever seen, and so there is opportunity everywhere.

HOW TO WIN IT ALL?

1 - Weigh Both Sides Equally

Seems rudimentary and like common sense. It's not always, not when reviewing a 16-game slate and maybe betting other sports too. If you love the Patriots to cover from the outset, have you actually considered the Bills? If you are salivating to take the Saints, have you pondered the Bucs? A common mistake by even professional bettors, something we notice in many of their podcasts and content channels, is we don't always walk a mile in the less palatable team's shoes - something world champion debaters would never go without. They consider both sides of an argument, which either strengthens their original thesis or takes them off it. If you think it is a slam dunk from the outset, SO DOES THE PUBLIC MARKET. You aren't gaining ground if everyone is thinking the same obvious thing.

2 - No Edge, No Play

If you are guessing, don't pick that game. Have an edge that aligns with your strategy, or at worst aligns against the public’s obvious strategy. Another way to put it is finding the value, the market discrepancy, or know something ESPN or Wager Talk are not discussing in their analysis, or whatever you use for your intel. 

3 - Seek Alpha

One thing few bettors will talk about in regards to the SuperContest style contest is seeking alpha. What is that? It's gains against the relative market, or in this case the field. The field is made up of the best sports handicappers out there. Know what they are going to do, because even they become predictable. Many of these sports handicappers tend to rely on their ideal 55-60% betting success models, but that's not going to win the SuperContest. Why? You need to aim for 70% if you want to win it all.

4 - Fundamentally No Team is as Good or as Bad as You Think

Most of the time no team is as bad or as good as you think it is. This seems like a layman's conclusion, but sometimes simplicity highlights the most profound truths. Take the Miami Dolphins in 2019. They were historically bad the first few weeks, destined to be the worst team in NFL history – then they turned a corner with a veteran QB and won a few games, covering 2/1 the rest of the season. To say, even when an atrocious team is down on their luck, they are still full of professional athletes and coaches. They are still desperate, to at worst, play for their next contract and pay check.  Never get too high or low on a team. Let the market do that. That's when you strike.

5 - The Line is Based on Market Sentiment Not Predicting Final Scores

Remember, the line is tied to market sentiment, not the final score of a game. This number matters secondarily to the fundamental match up, which team has the edge and how this game may unfold. This is counter to some common beliefs in sports betting circles where line moves are the be all end all. That is a smart approach for sports betting, but not the SuperContest.

6 - Get Over the "Butt Hurt," and Fast

You will pick a game, regret it, and it will go down faster than the Titanic. Get over it. Especially before teams might teeter and give up on a week or season, just move on and fast! You know who else is "butt hurt" after a surprising beat down? The team that got destroyed, the players, the fans, the coaches. Generally, the team is pissed, focused and ready to get back to proving themselves on the football field. The opposite tends to be true for those who are peaking. It doesn't mean either will cover their next week's line, but don't fade a team just because you were wrong the week before. You may have just been a week early.

7 - Know What You Don't Know.

This may seem more philosophical than pragmatic, but wisdom is knowing what you don't know. In 2018 for instance, we knew we were not finding any value and had nowhere to go other than to start guessing for two weeks. One of those weeks was the same week Vegas had one of its worst NFL Sundays on record, meaning the squares mopped up and the books got baked. Those two weeks, we should have considered alternate methods. This is dangerous if not done with caution. We have to know what we do not know. We had to be willing to toss out our weekly strategy for these two weeks and try something else. I would not do this for betting games, but for one-off contests where we need to finish 70% to win, it is something to consider.

8 - Win the Week

You know what you need to hit 70% and be right there to win the SuperContest or Circa Millionaire? 3.5 wins a week. Or just pick 3 of 5 then 4 of 5 right back and forth through the season. Throw in a 2 of 5 and a 5 of 5 and you will be just fine too. A strategy few will talk about, because most have no idea...is just win every week. Get over .500. Hit 3 games and look to pick up 4 or 5. If you apply blind betting metrics over the course of the season, you will not win this contest. You have to approach each week as its own week, and you want to win at least 3-4 games. 

WRAP IT UP AND LET’S GO WIN

So, take what we learned the last two years and try your hand at the Super Bowl for Sports Bettors – all you have to do is make a one-time trip to Vegas during a pandemic. If that doesn't suit you, sign-up for the Bet Karma NFL Premium package to get exclusive access to our market-beating, competitor-crushing managed Sportfolio picks ????, delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel!

Be sure to also listen to The Sports Trading Desk Podcast ????on Itunes or Stitcher each week to hear our most salient handicaps, market insights, and Sportfolio performance breakdowns ????. Follow Brett, Zach and Corey on Twitter ???? to catch their latest musings, actionable intel, and sardonic commentaries - you might even find a free premium play or two. ????????