Bales' Best MLB Bet (9/8/20)
Welcome to my newest edition of Bales' Best MLB Bets. In this article, I will outline my favorite bet for September 8, 2020. You can also find all of Bet Karma's staff bets through our MLB Premium Package.
Andrew Heaney has enjoyed a solid start to the 2020 season, allowing only 19 earned runs over 44 innings. His 3.89 ERA is backed by a 4.06 xFIP and a 4.10 SIERA. He also boasts a 2.70 FIP in 2020. Heaney boasts 26.3% strikeout and 13% swinging-strike rates this season. Surprisingly, he only owns a 37.1% ground ball rate while throwing his sinker over 60% of the time in 2020.
Heaney has thrown well but his biggest struggles have come on the road against right-handed batters. This is similar to his entire career. He has struggled with fly balls, as well, meaning home runs are always on the table. With that being said, he’s in a great matchup to limit the power against him.
Heaney will face off against the Texas Rangers, who rank 24th in the MLB in team batting average, 25th in slugging percentage, and 28th in wOBA over the last 10 days. Texas is only averaging 3.6 runs per game over that span while recording 12 home runs. They do boast eight stolen bases in those contests but I don’t expect that to be a major issue against Heaney.
Texas has found slightly more success against left-handed pitching this season but they are only hitting for a .211 average with a .315 slugging percentage and a .612 OPS at home. They feature one of the worst offenses in the MLB, although the Rangers scored 5 runs in only 3.2 innings against Heaney in their only matchup. With that being said, his BABIP sat at .533 in that game with his xFIP sitting at only 3.64 (12.27 ERA), suggesting he was extremely unlucky.
Lance Lynn has looked elite this season, allowing 19 runs (17 earned runs) over 57.1 innings in 9 starts. With that being said, he also owns a 4.25 xFIP and a 4.02 SIERA. Lynn is in a similar spot to Heaney in that he owns 27.2% strikeout and 11.1% swinging-strike rates but has also given up a 43.4% fly ball rate in 2020.
Lynn is a pitcher known for posting elite numbers against right-handed batters but that isn’t the case this season. He’s allowed a 4.87 xFIP to righties while holding left-handed batters to a 3.80 xFIP. This is a key in this game, as the Los Angeles Angels are expected to feature a number of right-handed batters in their offense tonight.
The Angels offense has found plenty of success over the last 10 days, ranking eighth in the MLB in team batting average, seventh in slugging percentage, and third in wOBA. They’re averaging 5.9 runs per game over that span, as well. Los Angeles has found more success at home, which is concerning but they have been at their best against right-handed pitching this season. Lynn held the Angeles to only 2 runs over 5.0 innings in their only matchup, although he posted a 5.29 xFIP in that game.
The Angels feature a better offense with similar pitchers in this matchup. This line focuses more on Heaney’s struggles in their first matchup but I don’t expect those to continue into this game. I’m backing the significantly hotter team as slight favorites tonight.
Bet 1.26 units on Los Angeles Angels ML (-126) to win 1 unit
2020 MLB Season Record - 25-39 (-12.84 units)