Bales' Best MLB Bet (9/10/20)
Welcome to my newest edition of Bales' Best MLB Bets. In this article, I will outline my favorite bet for September 10, 2020. You can also find all of Bet Karma's staff bets through our MLB Premium Package.
Brady Singer has struggled early in his MLB career, allowing 25 earned runs over 40.1 innings in 8 starts. He’s been a bit unlucky, though, as his 5.58 ERA sits well above his 4.28 xFIP and 4.52 SIERA. Singer doesn’t boast elite strikeout stuff but he owns a 52.8% ground ball rate in the Majors. I expect his 1.79 HR/9 to drop as it sat well below 1.0 throughout 26 games in the minor leagues.
Singer possesses similar splits at home and on the road in 2020, although the sample size is limited. He has been significantly better against right-handed batters, though, boasting a 3.10 xFIP against righties compared to a 5.33 xFIP against lefties. Singer’s best game of the season came against the Cleveland Indians and I expect him to replicate that success tonight.
The Indians have struggled a bit in recent games. They rank 18th in the MLB in team batting average, 21st in slugging percentage, and 23rd in wOBA over the last 10 days. Cleveland is averaging only 3.8 runs per game in those contests.
The Indians have struggled regardless of the situation. They’re only hitting for a .240 average with a .362 slugging percentage and a .688 OPS at home. They also own a .229/.376/.704 line against right-handed pitching. The biggest concern with Cleveland’s offense tonight is that they will be using a number of left-handed batters.
On the other side, Aaron Civale has looked outstanding through 8 starts in 2020. He’s allowed 21 earned runs over 52 innings. His 3.63 ERA is backed by a 3.60 xFIP and a 3.87 SIERA. He owns 23.4% strikeout and 10.8% swinging-strike rates to go along with a 44.7% ground ball rate this season. Civale has multiple ways to work himself out of tough situations throughout a game.
He’s a pitcher that has been at his best at home, where he boasts a 3.83 career xFIP. That number drops to 3.14 in 2020. He also boasts an elite 2.97 xFIP against right-handed pitching this season. Civale changed his pitch mix a bit in 2020, utilizing his curveball more, and he’s expected to continue to find success as he throws more innings.
He gets an elite matchup against the Kansas City Royals, who rank 27th in the MLB in team batting average, 30th in slugging percentage, and 29th in wOBA over the last 10 days. They’re averaging only 3.0 runs per game over that span.
Kansas City has struggled on the road, where they are only hitting for a .234 average with a .399 slugging percentage and a .694 OPS. They have also struggled against right-handed pitching, posting a .233/.390/.687 line in 2020. The top bats for the Royals are right-handed, giving a massive edge to Civale.
Both bullpen’s have found success in 2020, as Cleveland ranks third in the MLB in bullpen ERA while Kansas City ranks 11th. These teams rank ninth and 17th in xFIP, as well. They aren’t necessarily elite bullpens but they feature enough arms to find success after the starters are pulled.
Similarly to our bet last night, I’m relying heavily on the weather for the under in this game. The wind is blowing in around 10 mph. Neither team is overly powerful and home runs may be hard to come by with the wind helping the pitchers, making the under the top play in this game.
Bet 1.2 units on Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians under 8 runs (-120) to win 1 unit
2020 MLB Season Record - 26-40 (-13.1 units)