NFL Sportfolio Strategists’ Preliminary Market Outlook Heading into 2020
It's been a wild and crazy offseason, perhaps the most unusual we will ever see. Nonetheless, we made it to September 13th, and the 2020 NFL season is now only hours away, defiantly kicking dirt in the face of the most pessimistic predictions of so-called experts. There are a wide range of opinions across media and the Twittersphere as to how this season will play out, but we are confident that we *will* see a Super Bowl champion crowned in 2021, even if it takes some creativity and imagination on behalf of team, league, and government operators. There is a lot of uncertainty to go around, but we think we *can* be certain of in 2020, is historic spread volatility. Rumors and injuries have always kicked around prices throughout the week leading into the weekend, but the volume and intensity will likely be unmatched this season. In the blink of an eye, without any leading indicator, a key player or swath of players could be lost for several weeks, with unknown downstream consequences for the broader team and their past and future opponents. As the season progresses, will players on teams that have been eliminated from contention determine that the risks of playing in a Covid world no longer make sense and opt out midseason? Perhaps less explicit, will these players lose motivation to sacarfice their bodies and meaningfully compete or activiely find opportunities to miss games due to an unwarranted injury designation?
So many questions, so few answers. We aren't going to posture like we have a crystal ball and will be able to safely shephard you through an unprecedented season, but volatility creates opportunity, and we are here to at least help you put yourself in the best position possible to capitalize on them as they are presented - and perhaps most importantly, to help you avoid the destructive tendencies of *on-tilt* betting that so often leads to catostrophic bankroll destruction. But, in order to effectively do that, given these outsized risks, we need to adjust our approach to handicapping - both from a micro individual matchups perspective and from a macro thematic views on team and league dynamics perspective. We'll be expressing these critical pivots in our approach throughout the season and in our weekly sportfolio allocations, which you can gain exclusive access to by subscribing to our premium NFL season package. If you followed us last season, you saw our Core sportfolio earned >9% in ROI (low volume, risking approximately 1% per play), while our Aggressive sportfolio earned >40% in ROI (high volume, risking approximately 1-3% per play).
Today, we'll be sharing our final market outlook on the league, and will specifically quanitfy what teams we are over- or underweight on relative to broader market expectations (using win total futures as our proxy).
We can see that our sportfolio strategist team has various collective proprietary views that are demonstrably offmarket, creating exploitable opportunities by fading these teams in select moments during the season, especially after a superfically impressive performance that causes their market perception to bounce meaingfully higher, despite being unwarranted from a longer-term perspective. Teams that we will be looking to sell more often than not this season (as long as prices are reasonable and the market doesn't overcorrect too quickly) include: Vikings, Texans, Jets, Chargers, Panthers, and Bengals.
Of course, we don't only have exclusively more bearish views than the market. We also have isolated teams that we are much more bullish on than the market, and would want to find corresponding exploitable opportunities to buy them low in select moments during the season, especially after an unimpressive but misleading performance that causes their market perception to plummet, despite being unwarranted from a longer-term perspective. Teams that we will be looking to buy more often than not this season (as long as prices are reasonable and the market doesn't overcorrect too quickly) include: Raiders, Lions, Falcons, Cardinals, Colts, and Steelers.
Lastly, in our Week 1 preview podcast, we talked about some of our favorite futures bets, which included Lions to win the NFC North, Colts to win the AFC South and the AFC, Seahawks to win the NFC West, Patriots to win the AFC East, as well as a host of other favorite bets to get in before kickoff. Of course, to get access to this time-senstive info as quick as possible, be sure to check out The Sports Trading Desk Podcast ????on iTunes and Stitcher every Monday and Wednesday to hear our most salient handicaps, market insights, and Sportfolio performance breakdowns ????. Follow Brett (@nonrandomalpha), Zach (@betkarmazach) and Corey (@pickswclars24) on Twitter ???? to catch their latest musings, actionable intel, and sardonic commentaries - you might even find a free premium play or two ????????????!