NFL SUNDAY BLITZ REPORT - WEEK 2
NFL
NFL SUNDAY BLITZ REPORT - WEEK 2

Zach James
09-18-2020

WELCOME TO WEEK 2’S SUNDAY BLITZ REPORT

Zach’s weekly NFL Sunday Blitz Report is – The GAME within the GAME – or your weekly guide to help you decide what to target within each NFL Sunday game. Whether it is a spread, money line, total, teaser, parlay or live trading a game, this article and the BLITZ CHEAT SHEET is here to help you decide where to put your focus, energy and most importantly – MONEY!

This article will be released by Saturday night for the most up to date lines heading into Sunday.

 

SEASON PERFORMANCE

SPREAD

TOTAL

EXOTIC

LIVE BET

GAME OF WEEK

3-0-1

2-0

2-2

0-2

1-0

 

WEEK 1 RECAP

Last week I posted the Blitz Report a week before Sunday to get a jump on the market, and even doing so, still had the recommendations perform almost on point across the board.

Spreads and Totals dominated the Blitz Report, as they went a combined 5-0-1, the push being the Chargers recommendation. Though the cheat sheet said -3.5, the line got pushed to -3 right after this article’s release and hung there all week and even hit -2.5 before game time. A sloppy game that neither side was worth playing, but you could have won/pushed more likely than lost.

Live Bet recommendations did not go according to the suggested game script, as Seattle and New Orleans both pulled away. That said, had you jumped on Saints when went down 7-0, that might have been in line with the handicap, but I still count the overall suggested game script a loss. Exotics were hit or miss going 2-2, and the big crusher was the Colts tease down. As it got closer to game-time, I even posted on twitter a bold prediction that Minshew would back-door cover this game, as it seemed the entire betting market forgot he existed, me included (until Sunday morning) and thus his ability within Jay Gruden’s offense was never handicapped properly. I whiffed on the Cowboys/Rams Over, as did most handicappers, as neither team could finish drives in the endzone, but di hit the tease under on Philly/Wash and the tease over on Ravens/Browns.

The game that provided the most upside to cash all bets within the same game, was my GAME OF THE WEEK. Raiders and Panthers played almost too perfectly to my expectations, and because of the game’s predicted volatility, there was room to risk several plays that were more or less hedged against themselves. So, if Raiders lost by 3, still would have cashed your teaser for instance. Every facet of this game hit, and had you gone even further and bet the Over alt-line at +220+ that also would have hit. Spread, Total, Parlay, Teaser and the Live Bet the other way all cashed.

A note on Game of the Week – not to be confused with LOCK of the week, as I do not prescribe to guarantees. The Game of the Week is the game that if the game script goes according to plan the betting opportunities within that game provide exponential opportunity to cash multiple variations of somewhat correlated plays. This is not a recommendation to overextend bankroll into this game, it is a recommendation toward considering bets that can stack if the game script goes according to its projection.

Here is the cheat sheet from Week 1:

Now – for what you are here for, week 2!

WEEK 2

The primary plays worth considering are the following:

SPREAD

TOTAL

EXOTIC

LIVE BET

GAME OF WEEK

OFF GAME

4

3

4

2

1

0

 

FEATURED SPREAD PLAY

Chiefs @ Chargers

Last week’s featured spread play Cardinals @ 49ers hit with ease. Even the bonus recommendation of Cardinals straight up ended up cashing. This week, I’m going for the squarest of them all – Chiefs. Chiefs under 9 is a must play for me, especially when Andy Reid has EXTRA time to get his team ready. Especially in a year where there was no pre-season. Remember, even the good teams are working to get themselves in rhythm and in tune with their schemes. I don’t see any type of let-down spot, and in fact, I wouldn’t be shocked if this ends up being the best Chiefs game of the season. Bold, I know. Chargers are also banged up on offensive line and Tyrod Taylor is just not much more than a back-up QB. If Chiefs come ready to play, this could prove to be a disaster of a game for the Chargers, forcing the coaches to wonder if it’s time to move on from Taylor and put in the rookie.

FEATURED TOTAL PLAY

49ers @ Jets

Last week’s featured play hit the over in the Jets @ Bills game, so let’s run it back with an under for the Jets this time. I liked this play when the line was at 42.5, and before I knew Kittle was out. Traveling from the west coast, and so starting a game effectively at 9am, the 49ers are either going to be sluggish out of the gate or reliant upon 5th string wide receivers. Either way, Jets lost the potential, albeit rare, explosiveness of Leveon Bell and are looking to be out Jamison Crowder, Sam Darnold’s FAVORITE wide receiver come game time. With such injuries on both offenses, the game script may very well be a run-centric, get the 2nd stringers comfortable, don’t make mistakes and come out with 20 points type game. A tease feels a tad safer, but I have a hard time seeing this game getting more points than 21 to 20 type final. Which actually points to a correlated parlay/tease option here too. If the total is not to your liking, play Jets / Under in a parlay or tease. I have a hard time seeing the 49ers strength, running, dominating the Jets lone strength, rush defense.

FEATURED EXOTIC PLAY

Panthers @ Bucs +  Broncos @ Steelers

Though they did not even punt, the Colts last week failed us big time in this spot. No worries. This week, the Bucs welcome the defenseless Panthers and the Steelers bring in the late night banged up Broncos. Yes, Godwin is out and Mike Evans is battling a hamstring still, but the Bucs have enough weapons to blow past the Panthers, and have the defense to shut down CMC. The Bucs stymied the Saints run game and I don’t doubt that continues here. They are also due to get much more pressure on Bridgewater than the Raiders could muster. Teasing Bucs with Steelers, another home team with a dominant defense seems the safest play of the week, as Sutton looks to be out again for the Broncos and Drew Lock struggles with accuracy down the field. Neither of these underdogs looks to have much of a shot to beat what I think are the two best run defenses in the league.

FEATURED LIVE PLAY

Rams @ Eagles

Last week, I whiffed somewhat on the Atlanta @ Seattle game because the game plan focused on Russ dominating from the very start, and he did just that. Falcons DC Raheem Morris even admitted he was caught off guard and unprepared for a pass heavy, Russ-centric Seattle offense. This week, I wanted to point to a game that started as my Game of the Week, but has since turned to just a Live Play. I think the best bet in this game is leading out on Eagles, or waiting to get them down, then hedge the spread on Rams and look to middle. Rams +7.5 would be fantastic, but I’d settle for +4.5 if Rams are able to move the ball in a clean pocket for Jared Goff. Be warned. I think the only blowout possible, besides if injuries take over the game for the Eagles, is an Eagles blow out of the Rams. This game is likely competitive and the team with the ball lost wins. 24-27 is my ceiling, while 17-16 is my floor.

OFF PLAY

No Off Play

Still too early in the season, thus too many market discrepancies to avoid any Sunday slate games.

GAME OF THE WEEK

Vikings @ Colts

Last week the Game of the Week hit a monster play, read for yourself: “I’d be comfortable leading out on Raiders spread, the total over, teasing both, parlaying both and live betting the other way. E.g. spreading out a max play over all the above. This game could finish in the 3-4 TD’s for each team range.” Need we say more? Well, yes, because if your MAX Play was 5% of a bankroll, and you followed this Game of the Week’s advice, you’d have profited 6-7% just from this one game, while only ever having the realized risk of 4% - MAX. And that 4% risk had potential hedges built into it through a teaser and total bet. To say, the risk of losing the max 4% of your exposure was tied to rare variables such as catastrophic injuries or weather – or just this handicapper being DEAD wrong about what was the most likely game script. Mitigating Risk and Maximizing Returns is the name of the Game of the Week.

This week’s Game of the Week I struggled between the aforementioned Rams/Eagles and this game – Vikings @ Colts. And realizing now, I have even more confidence because like last week’s game, this one features an AFC team vs an NFC team. Why does that matter? These teams don’t have any track record with one another. And with two defenses that clearly struggled at times, it means we should be in for a volatile affair much like the Raiders vs Panthers. When the dust settles, I think a strange event will occur and the team that should of lost will win, and I’m leaning that being the Colts. I recommend another max play spread out over Colts ML, Vikings live +4.5 or better (prefer +6) Tease of Colts +4 / O 42, Tease of Vikings +9 / O 42, And consider both sides if either one goes down more than 6-7 points in the spread. I also don’t see this game going into the 30’s, so would consider a middle option of Under 57 live if the game started off with a boom. Both teams are are just looking for a win here, so expect conservative play calling down the stretch.

 

CHEAT SHEET

Quick note on the Cheat Sheet, even if a game or side is marked with a clear SPREAD, TOTAL or EXOTIC etc., it does not mean there aren’t other viable options. Sometimes I will note that there are in fact more than one option worth considering. And remember – the Sportfolio trio:  Corey, Brett and I publish our locked in plays every week in the Premium Football channel on Bet Karma’s Discord. Sign up to get access!

 

Grade breakdown:

C – Not intending to play as of this writing but leaning that side

B – Intending to put money on it or already have

A – Game of the Week (There may be more than one, and plan to put up to max bet spread out)

If haven’t checked out the other 2/3’s of our Sportfolio trio, look out for Corey’s weekly handicapping article and Brett’s Sportfolio article, as well as catch our weekly NFL preview podcast The Sports Trading Desk on itunes, Stitcher or YouTube. Our collective Sportfolio picks are only posted in Discord NFL-Expert-Picks. Sign up at BetKarma.com , follow, and get in the game!

*Note: The Blitz Report is posted by Friday/Saturday night and so final allocations of the Sportfolios and Zach’s final recommendations can only be found in BetKarma.com Premium Discord Sunday mornings by 12pm EST.


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