NFL SUNDAY BLITZ REPORT - WEEK 3
NFL
NFL SUNDAY BLITZ REPORT - WEEK 3

Zach James
09-25-2020

WELCOME TO WEEK 3’S SUNDAY BLITZ REPORT

Zach’s weekly NFL Sunday Blitz Report is – The GAME within the GAME – or your weekly guide to help you decide what to target within each NFL Sunday game. On the seaon, the Blitz Report is 16-8-3 on its Sunday slate recommendtions. Whether it is a spread, money line, total, teaser, parlay or live trading a game, this article and the BLITZ CHEAT SHEET is here to help you decide where to put your focus, energy and most importantly – MONEY! 

 

SEASON PERFORMANCE

SPREAD

TOTAL

EXOTIC

LIVE BET

GAME OF WEEK

5-2-1

4-2

6-2

0-3-1

1-0-1

 

WEEK 2 RECAP

Week 2 saw another positive overall performance, going 8-4-2 in the Blitz Report recommendations.

Exotics DOMINATED the Blitz Report this week going an easy 4-0 with 2 favorite teases, Bucs and Steelers, and two game script correlated teases that hit with Baltimore and Titans correlated with their overs.

Totals went 2-1, with the lone misfire being from a meaningless back door cover by Sam Darnold and the worst team in football Jets. Spreads were only 2-2 this week with the Falcons and Giants being easy covers. Lions I eventually faded as it got closer to Sunday and the Chiefs was a poor handicap from the outset, compounded by the rookie QB Herbert starting on no notice – a game I would have faded had it been known as of the Blitz Report’s writing.

The lone Live Bet recommendation was a push, since the recommendation was game-script accurate, but missed the spread at +4 and hit the money line on Seattle.

The Game of The Week was also a push, as I noted I had less conviction in it than week 1’s GOW, and even pointed out – “fair warning, I do see a scenario where this game is a low scoring affair,” and so accordingly the Colts dominated with the under, which only gave the 1st suggestion - colts money line an easy cash.

A note on Game of the Week – not to be confused with LOCK of the week, as I do not prescribe to guarantees. The Game of the Week is the game that if the game script goes according to plan the betting opportunities within that game provide exponential opportunity to cash multiple variations of somewhat correlated plays. This is not a recommendation to overextend bankroll into this game, it is a recommendation toward considering bets that can stack if the game script goes according to its projection.

Here is a recap of the cheat sheet from Week 2:

 

Now – for what you are here for, week 3!

 

WEEK 3

The primary plays worth considering are the following:

SPREAD

TOTAL

EXOTIC

LIVE BET

GAME OF WEEK

OFF GAME

5

3

3

1

1

1

 

FEATURED TOTAL PLAY

SF @ NYG

I did not recommend it on the Blitz Report last week, but because the market was dunking over the 49ers all week, I decided to lean into a Jets play. What a mistake. This is a great reminder early on in the season – one sided handicaps are simply not good enough. The issue with that play was on one side – 49ers were predictably conservative, banged up – then got MORE injured. On the other side though, the worst team in football can be summed up by giving up a 55 yard run on 3rd and 35, right up the middle. Something I’m not sure I have ever seen in even college football. That’s grotesque.

So this week – the 49ers have lost Bosa, Solomon Thomas, probably Mostert (80 yd TD run vs Jets) and Jimmy G. Welcome Nick Mullens and likely another game with George Kittle. Yes, Giants lost Barkley and Sterling Shephard, but I’m not sure this isn’t a net benefit for the Giants, since they couldn’t run the ball anyway. And now, this is Danny Dimes’ team, with no stud running back he feels obligated to force feed. Same goes for OC Garett too. I honestly think I was a week early, and the sharp market has been on Giants through the week. I expect an even more vanilla game plan by Shannahan as he just tries to get his backups up to speed, and so Giants should have every chance to win this game, if they just play competent, unlike the Jets.

Bonus consideration: Giants Money Line. Why? If this game goes according to the plan, I almost lean just betting the Giants ML, a save on investment if the handicap misses. But, for my taste, I will likely break it into ML and Spread, as to hedge one with the other on the off chance it’s close, but Giants come up short, as bad teams are apt to do.

FEATURED TOTAL PLAY

TEN @ MIN

This total is way too high at 49.5. I would look under 47 even. The reason the under is appealing here is not because of the lack-luster defenses on both sides, but because of likely game script. Kubiak even hinted at his hand of running the ball much more with Dalvin Cook, and with the Titans always looking to get Henry going, I think the (currently) slowest paced offense in the league vs Derrick Henry and play action keeps this game clock going, limits big plays, and we get a methodical 20-24 type ceiling. A late TD could put this over, or the offenses opening it up, but this game reminds me more of Titans at Denver than Titans playing Jaguars. And, there are two defensive minded head coaches on either sideline who would love nothing more than to actually have a solid defensive performance, rather than a shootout.

FEATURED EXOTIC PLAY

LAR @ BUF

This game could be the Game of the Week, but I just don’t trust that both of these QB’s play well. I think more likely is they both play poorly. That said, teasing the Rams appears the safest play here because Diggs or Brown will be limited by CB Ramsay, Zack Moss looks to be out and the Rams defense has been surprisingly solid. Also, considering Bills have banged up linebackers, the Rams might live over the middle like Dolphins’ TE did last week.

Bonus consideration: Without declaring it my Game of the Week, if feeling good about this spot, Rams ML, Rams Spread, Rams Live line +6, Rams and the Under tease I might come around on if I pivot to this game by game time. My two hesitations are Rams going back to the east coast after returning home from last week’s game there, and Goff getting pressured. So there is more risk baked into this handicap, but could set up nicely if looking for a big opportunity to cash multiple correlated levels.

FEATURED LIVE PLAY

DAL @ SEA

I don’t think this one need any introduction. Both these offenses should eat against defenses that struggle to get pressure. If the game starts sloppy and the total slips down below 51, consider the Over. If either team jumps out to a 10-14 point lead, consider the other side’s points. Dallas is going to struggle to stop Russel Wilson, so it is possible there is a Seattle blow-out, but Dak has a ton of weapons and so if they just play within themselves, they should keep up and have a chance.

OFF PLAY

WASH @ CLE

I see too many variations of how this game could go to ride with any angle. Low scoring sloppy skins cover. Browns dominate goes under. Both teams put up 20+ points over. There is just no clear path to an edge for me here.

GAME OF THE WEEK

DET @ ARZ

Not sure Golloday is back, so if not this play becomes even more risky. Lions have had 10+ point leads in the first half of their first two games. Christian Kirk also may not play, putting a lot of pressure on Hopkins and the running game. And the Cardinals played arguably the easiest two offenses in the first two games of any team – the Washington Football Team and the no wide receivers 49ers. If there is a game for this team to get exposed on defense, it might just be here against Stafford.

Arizona should not have any trouble scoring in this game, especially considering Lion’s secondary cluster injuries. The total at 55.5 does seem a bit high, so going to ride with the over and Lions on a tease in this one. 1) Lions Spread 2) Lions Tease + Over 3) Lions 1H +3.5 4) Live Spreads: Lions +7 & Cards +3 if can get it. 5) If Cards go down 10-14 early, would consider a BIG play on their money line, then expect a Cards comeback to hedge/middle when they cut it close/tie/take lead.  

For those unfamiliar, a Live Middle might look like this:

Cards go down 14-3:

  • Bet Cards money line +120 for 3U to win 3.6U

Cards cut the score 13-14:

  • hedge out exposure with 2U on Lions +150 to win 3U

Cards go up 16-14:

  • 0.5U on Lions +170 to win 0.85U

So in this scenario, would win 0.85U if Lions won and 1.1U if Cardinals won, and no end-game risk. So any flukiness is taken out of the equation whether a 55 yard FG or OT fumble for TD. The actual live numbers and in-game leans should change your betting allocations accordingly. The key being to find ways to lessen your exposure if the play doesn’t hit, while maximizing return on a side or a middle.

SCORE

Lions 14-3

Lions 14-13

Cards 16-14

Lions Win

Cards Win

BETS

3U AZ +120

2U DET +150

0.5U DET +170

Exposure gone

Exoposure gone

RETURN

3.6U if AZ

3U if DET

0.85U if DET

0.85U

1.1U

 

CHEAT SHEET

Quick note on the Cheat Sheet, even if a game or side is marked with a clear SPREAD, TOTAL or EXOTIC etc., it does not mean there aren’t other viable options. Sometimes I will note that there are in fact more than one option worth considering. And remember – the Sportfolio trio:  Corey, Brett and I publish our locked in plays every week in the Premium Football channel in Bet Karma’s Discord.

Grade breakdown:

C – Not intending to play as of this writing but leaning that side

B – Intending to put money (Up to one unit) on it or already have

A – Game of the Week (There may be more than one, and plan to put more than one unit)

If haven’t checked out the other 2/3’s of our Sportfolio trio, look out for Corey’s weekly handicapping article and Brett’s Sportfolio breakdown article, as well as catch our weekly NFL preview podcast The Sports Trading Desk on itunes, Stitcher or YouTube. Our collective Sportfolio picks are only posted in Discord NFL Premium. Sign up at BetKarma.com , follow, and get in the game! Can always let us know if have any questions or hot takes, good or bad.

*This article was finalized/posted as of Friday afternoon 9/25/2020


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