Joey's MLB Prop Bets Wednesday 09/30
What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my Prop Bets article. In this article I will be outlining one of my favorite Prop bets of the day. To find my other prop bets and all of the other staff’s favorite bets make sure to sign up for the Premium package.
NBA: 16-13 +11.37 units
WNBA: 16-8 +16.17 units
MLB: 11-9 -0.53 units
NFL: 12-10 +2.65 units
Total: 55-42 +29.66 units
All Prop lines are based on Draftkings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on time you are reading this or if you are using a different bookie.
Chris Paddack OVER 4.5 Ks -125 2 units to win 1.6 units: Paddack is going to have to step it up this series with the Padres missing Clevenger or Lamat on their roster for this series. He has had a great season this year; games where he pitched four innings or more, he has gone over this mark 7 out of 9 times this season. He did this while facing great competition. Paddack is one of the few starting pitchers I have seen that doesn’t throw sliders. He mainly throws fastballs, Changeups and Curveballs. This Cardinals lineup does far worse against righties than they do lefties. Giving up 3% more Ks for righties than they do lefties. That correlates perfectly with Paddack taking advantage of his 30% K% to righties compared to only 22% for lefties. If Paddack is able to get through these righties efficiently then he should have an easy time getting over the 4.5 K hump today. Only Brad Miller really has had much success this season for the Cardinals hitting Changeups effectively so this is the perfect spot for Paddack to go heavy on his changeups. While changeups aren’t the only thing that is important it does set Paddack aside from all the other pitchers the Cardinals have faced this season.