NFL SUNDAY BLITZ REPORT - WEEK 4
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NFL SUNDAY BLITZ REPORT - WEEK 4

Zach James
10-02-2020

WELCOME TO WEEK 4’S SUNDAY BLITZ REPORT

Zach’s weekly NFL Sunday Blitz Report is – The GAME within the GAME – or your weekly guide to help you decide what to target within each NFL Sunday game. Whether it is a spread, money line, total, teaser, parlay or live trading a game, this article and the BLITZ CHEAT SHEET is here to help you decide where to put your focus, energy and most importantly – MONEY!

SEASON PERFORMANCE

SPREAD

TOTAL

EXOTIC

LIVE BET

GAME OF WEEK

6-6-1

5-3

8-3

1-3-1

2-0-1

Sitting strong at 22-15-3 and have hit 2 of the Game of the Weeks and pushed on the other one.

WEEK 3 RECAP

Unlike a dominant week 1 and 2, week 3 had its share of struggles. The week 3 Blitz Report underperformed, but was bailed out by a strong Game of the Week performance by the Lions covering 1H, the game and a live play on both sides being profitable as well, including if live bet the game and took the appropriate +EV sides of Lions and Cards Spreads/Money Lines. My strongly considered and secondary option for Game of the Week, E.g. Rams @ Bills, also had the volatility to cash a bunch of tickets, especially if live played a money line when Rams were down and hedged appropriately on the comeback. That type middle opportunity would have been +300 net EV if hedged properly if not more.

Spreads went a brutal 1-4, as the Eagles, Saints and Giants were all narrow handicaps, but Texans was a legitimate right side, but should have laid off due to the predictably terrible coaching of Bill O’Brien. Despite even Bill, the refs gifted a first down to the Steelers with a terrible PI call on a 4th down late in the game that resulted in a Steelers FG. That play in and of itself blows the a cover, as Steelers went for 2 to push their lead to 7 instead of 6 late.  

Totals also underperformed going 1-2 and getting scared off from a Vikings cover and leaning to a slow-potting under instead hurt us.

Live Bets FINALLY got off the snide with Dallas and Seattle having a predictably volatile game-flow that if took the recommended Dallas over 7, you would have cashed.

Exotics went 2-1 with the Rams hitting on their comeback and the Patriots sticking it to the Raiders.

Here is a recap of the cheat sheet from Week 3:

Now – for what you are here for, week 4!

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WEEK 4

The primary plays worth considering are the following:

SPREAD

TOTAL

EXOTIC

LIVE BET

GAME OF WEEK

OFF GAME

5

2

4

1

1

0

 

FEATURED SPREAD PLAY

Jags @ Bengals

I may have 1 too many spread plays this week, but Jags +3 is my favorite one. Bengals defense is still not very good and cannot stop the run, so James Robinson should have his way. Chark is back and as we all know, the Jags have had the extra time to prepare. Jay Gruden is a better offensive play-caller than what the Bengals put out there and Burrow hype has gotten out of hand for a QB who is 0-2-1 and can’t finish in the red zone – a staple of Zach Taylor coached teams. Bengals are still the worst coached team in the NFL, so getting three points seems much too generous for what I have as a pick em. And just like last week with Jags laying points, not sure Bengals are good enough to lay any points against anyone but the Jets at this point.

FEATURED TOTAL PLAY

Giants @ Rams

Over 48 here looks to be the best of the options in this game due to the correlation with how the Giants may or may not play. I lean a Giants cover, but I think it’s saver to put them at over 20 points and Rams tipping toward 30 points, so a 20 to 31 type score would miss the spread, but go over the total. If the Giants really struggle, this could be a 13 to 38 type game and if it’s competitive 24-27 seems appropriate. To say, no matter the game-flow, this game should be closer to 50 or above.

FEATURED EXOTIC PLAY

Colts @ Bears

Tease the Under and Bears and get this under 50 and Bears +9/10. The weather may have 15mph wind and a bit rainy, while Colts have the top defense in the league through 3 games. Bears lost Cohen and Colts lost Cambell, so both teams lack playmakers, have solid defenses and non-mobile QB’s. You could even convince me to parlay this / take the under straight up.

FEATURED LIVE PLAY

Browns @ Cowboys

This game looks to be as volatile as they come or a Cowboys blowout, so if want to lead out on a Cowboys Money Line, I won’t stop you. Though, because this Cowboys defense is so poor, they may go down early and thus getting them on another comeback might be the best play. If Hunt and Beckham do play, I don’t see Browns struggling on offense, and so if can get Browns over +7 and over 10, then definitely consider that too. Total is also likely over 50, so if there is a slow start to this game, consider getting over 48-51.

GAME OF THE WEEK

Cardinals @ Panthers

Week 1 saw us cash the Game of the Week going with Raiders at Panthers and saw last week the Lions cash our Game of the Week at the Cardinals. So, when feeling good about two teams playing each other, let’s run it back, as they say. I lean Cards to win this straight up, and would prefer buying down to 2.5 or 2, and then parlay with the over, tease with the over, tease with Panthers and the Over and look for live in game plays on Panthers down, as Cardinals have cluster injuries to their safeties. Robbie Anderson and/or CJ Moore should have big days too. Cardinals also have the 2nd fastest pace of any team in the NFL, which should put points on the board with two teams who are bottom 10 in defense.

CHEAT SHEET

Quick note on the Cheat Sheet, even if a game or side is marked with a clear SPREAD, TOTAL or EXOTIC etc., it does not mean there aren’t other viable options. Sometimes I will note that there are in fact more than one option worth considering. And remember – the Sportfolio trio:  Corey, Brett and I publish our locked in plays every week in the Premium Football channel on Bet Karma’s Discord.

Also, skipping grades this week since out of town so will be releasing this article earlier than I would like. 

Grade breakdown:

C – Not intending to play as of this writing but leaning that side

B – Intending to put money (Up to one unit) on it or already have

A – Game of the Week (There may be more than one, and plan to put more than one unit)

If haven’t checked out the other 2/3’s of our Sportfolio trio, look out for Corey’s weekly handicapping article and Brett’s Sportfolio article, as well as catch our weekly NFL preview podcast The Sports Trading Desk on itunes, Stitcher or YouTube. Our collective Sportfolio picks are only posted in Discord NFL Premium. Sign up at BetKarma.com , follow, and get in the game!

*Note: final allocations of the Sportfolios and Zach’s final recommendations can only be found in BetKarma.com Premium Discord Sunday mornings by 12pm EST.


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