Joey's NBA Prop Bets Friday 10/02
What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my Prop Bets article. In this article I will be outlining one of my favorite Prop bets of the day. To find my other prop bets and all of the other staff’s favorite bets make sure to sign up for the Premium package.
NBA: 16-18 +6.37 units (We got killed last night with injuries and Blowout)
WNBA: 16-8 +16.17 units
MLB: 11-10 -1.53 units
NFL: 13-10 +3.55 units
Total: 55-42 +29.66 units
All Prop lines are based on Draftkings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on time you are reading this or if you are using a different bookie.
Tyler Herro UNDER 5.5 rebounds -106 1 unit to win 0.94 units: I am pretty surprised this number is 5.5 and not 4.5 rebounds. I think Vegas is overcompensating for Bam and Goran not playing, but that doesn’t make a difference in his rebounding numbers. I know this is a small sample size, but the one game Bam has missed this season, Herro only had one rebound. Goran Dragic missed 14 games this season and in 9 of those games he stayed under 5.5 rebounds; while averaging 4.3 rebounds. Another note we have to mention is that the Lakers are favorited and should have an easy time ripping through this defense. This will lead to high percentage shot attempts and less rebounding opportunities for all Heat players. Herro’s rebounding percentage drops from 8.4% to 7.8%. His defensive rebounding percentage, which is more predictable, drops from 14.9% to 14.1%. Since his offensive rebounding percentage is only at only 1%, we can neglect those in our projections. Meaning the Lakers need to miss an average of 42 shots while Herro is on the floor for him to get to 6 rebounds. In 48 minutes last game the Lakers only missed 46 shots. Herro would have had to play almost the whole game for him to reach this mark on average. Herro averages 30 minutes, which is 62.5% of the game. Lakers would need to miss almost 70 shots on the game for him to see around 42 miss shots. The implied odds on this bet is 52%. There is way more than a 52% chance that he falls under this number. Long term this is a profitable bet.