Joey's MLB Prop Bets Wednesday 10/07
What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my Prop Bets article. In this article I will be outlining one of my favorite Prop bets of the day. To find my other prop bets and all of the other staff’s favorite bets make sure to sign up for the Premium package.
NBA: 3-3 +1.6 units
MLB: 1-0 +1.01 units
NFL: 4-5 -2.54 units
Total: 8-8 +0.07 units
September Record: 58-48 +25.91 units
All Prop lines are based on Draftkings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on time you are reading this or if you are using a different bookie.
Pablo Lopez OVER 4.5 Ks +100 1.00 unit to win 1.00 units: It is always a risk to take the over on a pitcher during the playoffs, especially from someone that is known for giving up runs. Teams have had short leashes on these guys all postseason. However, Miami has been different from other teams. This postseason each starting pitcher has pitched at least five innings. This give me hope that the Marlins are less likely to pull him for one or two runs given up. Miami finds themselves down 1-0 in the series so that might not be the case today, but I am riding the good matchup for Lopez. Lopez has a 21% K% on the season, but that number increases to 26% when facing righties and down to 17% when facing lefties. Luckily for Lopez, the Braves will be running out a lineup that features seven righties and only two lefties. The Braves Righties also have a far worst time against right-handed pitchers than the lefties do. The Righties have a K% to match Lopez’ with 26%, while the lefties also match Lopez with 17% K%. If he can handle the righties and only give up the rare hits to the lefties, Lopez sill have an easy time seeing five or six innings today. Lopez has had success with his curve ball this season, posting a 40% whiff% against righties, one of the tops in the league. The Braves outside the lefties struggle mightily against curve balls. All having a contact% under 75% with two guys having one under 60%. Lopez has averaged 1 K per inning this season so expect if he can reach that 5 innings mark for him to go over.
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