Bales' Best NFL Bet (Week 5)

Welcome to my newest edition of Bales' Best NFL Bet. In this article, I will outline my favorite bet for Week 5 of the NFL season. You can also find all of Bet Karma's staff bets through our NFL Premium Package. 

Keep in mind, you should always be shopping sportsbooks for the best price. Some props will be a few yards different while some spreads could be an entire point different. Getting the best number possible is one main key to being a successful bettor. 

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (+210) vs Houston Texans (-245)

The Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans will face off in a fast-paced game, as they rank 12th and seventh in the NFL in seconds per play thus far. This game also features one of the highest Vegas totals at 54 points, suggesting there will be plenty of offensive success from both teams. 

D.J. Chark has been an ultra-efficient receiver while dealing with injuries for Jacksonville in 2020. In 3 games, he boasts 15 receptions for 204 yards and 3 touchdowns on 16 targets. Chark has gotten progressively better as the season has progressed, recording 25 yards in the opener followed by 84 yards Week 2 and 95 yards in his return to the lineup last week. 

Chark has only played 61.4% of the offensive snaps in 2020. He’s the clear top option when healthy, though. In his 3 games, he’s totaled 84%, 79%, and 85% of the offensive snaps, leading any other receiver by more than 10%. He’ll continue to see 85%+ of the snaps as he continues to gain his health back, as well. 

While the volume hasn’t been there early on, Chark has turned 11.3% of targets into 14.2% of receptions, 17.9% of receiving yards, and 37.5% of receiving touchdowns. He’s their clear-cut WR1 with his production backing that statement. Chark also turned 9 targets into 8 receptions for 95 yards and 2 touchdowns in his return from injury, suggesting he could continue to see a massive role moving forward. 

Overall, he owns 19.9% of Jacksonville’s air yard in 2020. He has seen 219 air yards thus far, posting a 13.7 aDOT. His aDOT ranks just outside of the top-15 in the NFL this season. I don’t expect Chark to continue with his elite efficiency as the season progresses, but I expect a bump in volume, allowing him to continue to produce at an elite level. 

Chark quietly gets an elite matchup against the Houston Texans this weekend. They’re only allowing 211.5 passing yards per game in 2020, which is top-five in the NFL thus far. With that being said, they have only seen 114 pass attempts, which ranks third-last in the league. Houston is allowing the third-highest adjusted yards per attempt (9.2) while struggling in every per-attempt category. 

Houston has also struggled to pressure the opposing quarterback, ranking in the bottom half of the NFL in hurry percentage (8.5%), quarterback knockdown percentage (4.4%), and pressure percentage (20.2%). Chark needs time for his routes to develop and giving Gardner Minshew a clean pocket is a key to this over hitting. 

The biggest concern in this game is Bill O’Brien getting fired. The Texans could focus on slowing the game down, limiting Jacksonville’s chances. Regardless, the Jaguars are +6.5 point underdogs, suggesting they will be throwing for the majority of the game. If that’s the case, Chark’s total is far too low, as I expect him to continue in his dominant WR1 role. 

Bet 1.12 units on D.J. Chark over 56.5 receiving yards (-112) to win 1 unit

 

2020 NBA Season Record - 13-10 (+3.3 unit)