WELCOME TO WEEK 5’S SUNDAY BLITZ REPORT

Zach’s weekly NFL Sunday Blitz Report is – The GAME within the GAME – or your weekly guide to help you decide what to target within each NFL Sunday game. Whether it is a spread, money line, total, teaser, parlay or live trading a game, this article and the BLITZ CHEAT SHEET is here to help you decide where to put your focus, energy and most importantly – MONEY!

 

SEASON PERFORMANCE

SPREAD	TOTAL	EXOTIC	LIVE BET	GAME OF WEEK
8-8-1	6-4-0	11-4-0	1-3-2	2-1-1

 

WEEK 4 RECAP

Last week the Blitz Report went a middling 6-5-1 and one game was nixed off the slate due to COVID (Patriots v Chiefs).

Exotic once again led the way going 3-1 and I had our first outright losing Game of the Week of the season when the Cardinals put in a miserable effort vs the upstart Panthers. The game still went over on a tease, but considering the other components, I’m calling that a clear-cut loss.

Spreads and Totals split, so no ground gained there.

What we’ve learned through 4 weeks?

Injuries are crushing teams left and right, putting even more emphasis on QB, coaching and matchups. In fact, teams in my power ratings that were in the top 10 went 9/10 covering early week spreads in week 4, and most of those teams have great QBs and/or very good coaching. The only team that lost, the Patriots, lost to a team ranked higher than them in the power rankings.

Looking forward, something to keep in mind when applying handicaps to teams is to consider what is a constant variable for a team and make sure that is your handicap starting point. So, an easy one at this point is Packers’ Rodgers and Seahawks’ Wilson. Both these QBs are constants, in that, handicaps should be built from the ground up with probable variables that are most likely to remain true on a given week – like Rodgers and Wilson playing at a high, consistent level. What is not helpful is cherry-picking variables that inevitably outweigh a constant variable, like what I did last week with the Jaguars. The Jaguars constant variable is their defense is one of the worst in the NFL and has only a couple playmakers. That constant variable, if not adhered to as a starting point, may not get the proper weight in a handicap when facing a playmaking Bengals offense. Obviously, even constant variables can and will have poor performances, but the point is a constant variable is most likely to rebound or revert back to the mean of it being consistent, versus something less predictable like a Fitzmagic performance, which may or may not happen on any given week.

 

Now – for what you are here for, week 5!

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