WELCOME TO WEEK 5’S SUNDAY BLITZ REPORT

Zach’s weekly NFL Sunday Blitz Report is – The GAME within the GAME – or your weekly guide to help you decide what to target within each NFL Sunday game. Whether it is a spread, money line, total, teaser, parlay or live trading a game, this article and the BLITZ CHEAT SHEET is here to help you decide where to put your focus, energy and most importantly – MONEY!

 

SEASON PERFORMANCE

SPREAD	TOTAL	EXOTIC	LIVE BET	GAME OF WEEK
8-8-1	6-4-0	11-4-0	1-3-2	2-1-1

 

WEEK 4 RECAP

Last week the Blitz Report went a middling 6-5-1 and one game was nixed off the slate due to COVID (Patriots v Chiefs).

Exotic once again led the way going 3-1 and I had our first outright losing Game of the Week of the season when the Cardinals put in a miserable effort vs the upstart Panthers. The game still went over on a tease, but considering the other components, I’m calling that a clear-cut loss.

Spreads and Totals split, so no ground gained there.

What we’ve learned through 4 weeks?

Injuries are crushing teams left and right, putting even more emphasis on QB, coaching and matchups. In fact, teams in my power ratings that were in the top 10 went 9/10 covering early week spreads in week 4, and most of those teams have great QBs and/or very good coaching. The only team that lost, the Patriots, lost to a team ranked higher than them in the power rankings.

Looking forward, something to keep in mind when applying handicaps to teams is to consider what is a constant variable for a team and make sure that is your handicap starting point. So, an easy one at this point is Packers’ Rodgers and Seahawks’ Wilson. Both these QBs are constants, in that, handicaps should be built from the ground up with probable variables that are most likely to remain true on a given week – like Rodgers and Wilson playing at a high, consistent level. What is not helpful is cherry-picking variables that inevitably outweigh a constant variable, like what I did last week with the Jaguars. The Jaguars constant variable is their defense is one of the worst in the NFL and has only a couple playmakers. That constant variable, if not adhered to as a starting point, may not get the proper weight in a handicap when facing a playmaking Bengals offense. Obviously, even constant variables can and will have poor performances, but the point is a constant variable is most likely to rebound or revert back to the mean of it being consistent, versus something less predictable like a Fitzmagic performance, which may or may not happen on any given week.

 

Now – for what you are here for, week 5!

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WEEK 5

The primary plays worth considering are the following:

SPREAD	TOTAL	EXOTIC	LIVE BET	GAME OF WEEK	OFF GAME
4	2	3	2	1	0

 

FEATURED SPREAD PLAY

Colts @ Browns

My featured spread play was going to be Arizona over Jets, but it looks like that game has been moved and may be postponed further. Instead, I bring you the Browns. Yes, the Colts have the more consistent, better overall team, but in this spot, the Colts are missing their biggest key on defense – LB Leonard and their LT on O-line. Those are two big hits, but the Browns only lost Chubb so far, which for a game or two I don’t think will be as big of a hit due to Browns RB depth and O-line. I also could see Phillip Rivers giving the ball away a few times, as he nearly did vs the Bears. If Baker plays mostly mistake free, this might be a game that puts Browns over the hype train and Colts under it, which would be excellent, since I don’t see either being justifiable. Browns also have been running the ball extremely well, whereas Jonathon Taylor and company have been generally very underwhelming. With still no timing happening between Rivers and TY Hilton, we are going to have to see either a Baker game giveaway or Colts playing outside how they’ve looked so far for Colts to win this.

 

FEATURED TOTAL PLAY

Eagles @ Steelers

This one is fairly straight forward for the under, Steelers got rusty on an unexpected bye and Eagles are beyond banged up at this point. Steelers D shuts the run down and gets to the QB, as I can’t see Eagles doing anything other than relying on game management and their defense, much like vs the 49ers. The way this goes over is if Steelers are firing on all cylinders on offense with big plays and Eagles are forced to take bigger risks. In that correlated scenario, an Over and Pitt ML tease could work well too.

 

FEATURED EXOTIC PLAY

Giants @ Cowboys

This is a tough one in general, but Cowboys less than a FG seems about right, as it’s going to be hard for the Cowboys not to keep scoring in this game, and difficult for Danny Dimes to keep up. Could also correlate with an over, as no way can I do any type of under with Dallas’ defense in a game.

 

FEATURED LIVE PLAY

Carolina @ Atlanta

Both teams should be able to score 3-4 TD’s against the other’s defense, and with that kind of points and a desperate for a win team like Atlanta at home, this is prime territory at a pick ‘em to grab a team to play well early and get the inverse if down 2-3 scores. Carolina’s defense is still young and inexperienced, so as long as Matt Ryan has at least a healthy Ridley, Falcon’s offense should play better here than they did vs the Packers defense.

 

GAME OF THE WEEK

Jags @ Houston

This is another tough week to pick a Game of the Week, but if there is a game that could be a rife with drama, it’s this one. BOB is gone, thank god, and might this be the week the reigns come off Watson? I have a hunch it might be. Tier these - 1-Over 2-Texans ML 3-Tease Texans +Over 4-Live play Texans down 5-Live play Jags once they bottom out, preferably +14 or better if Watson is unstoppable.

JJ Watt and Deshaun Watson took major issue with BOB and some of his recent handlings of this team. As we all know, his trading of Deandre Hopkins was probably the worst trade in NFL history, and that’s saying something toward his ability to evaluate talent. Houston has a fresh start to the season in this one, but with Jags extra rest, this lines up to be a volatile, high-scoring affair.

 

CHEAT SHEET

Quick note on the Cheat Sheet, even if a game or side is marked with a clear SPREAD, TOTAL or EXOTIC etc., it does not mean there aren’t other viable options. Sometimes I will note that there are in fact more than one option worth considering. And remember – the Sportfolio trio:  Corey, Brett and I publish our locked in plays every week in the Premium Football channel on Bet Karma’s Discord.

 

Grade breakdown:

Once again no grades this week, as it is another low confidence week across the board!

If haven’t checked out the other 2/3’s of our Sportfolio trio, look out for Corey’s weekly handicapping article and Brett’s Sportfolio article, as well as catch our weekly NFL preview podcast The Sports Trading Desk on itunes, Stitcher or YouTube. Our collective Sportfolio picks are only posted in Discord NFL Premium. Sign up at BetKarma.com , follow, and get in the game!