Joey's NBA Prop Bets Friday 10/09
What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my Prop Bets article. In this article I will be outlining one of my favorite Prop bets of the day. To find my other prop bets and all of the other staff’s favorite bets make sure to sign up for the Premium package.
NBA: 3-3 +1.6 units
MLB: 2-0 +2.01 units
NFL: 5-5 -1.54 units
Total: 9-8 +1.07 units
September Record: 58-48 +25.91 units
All Prop lines are based on Draftkings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on time you are reading this or if you are using a different bookie.
Jimmy Butler OVER 7.5 Assists -120 1.20 units to win 1 unit: Jimmy Butler has really tried his all to keep the Heat from getting blown out each game. Butler is commanding a 27.8% usage rate, which is 3% higher than his regular season total. He has an assist ratio of 29.0, meaning he has an assist on 29% of the possessions. He is also assisting on 43% of all his teams field goals while he is on the floor, which is an unreal number. However, people can look at this and say it’s not really sustainable, but that is the thing about the playoffs and especially the Finals, some players play above and beyond the norm to help their team win. Jimmy Butler is also averaging 20 potential assists per game with an adjusted assist rate of 14.0. He’s averaging close to 80 passes a game with 15% of his passes leading to assists and 25% of them leading to a shot attempt. He is being extremely efficient with his touches; I am not expecting 10+ assists from him again but 8+ should be easy for him to get tonight. Butler is averaging 10 assists this series and has gone over 7.5 assists in three out of four games this finals trip. Bam does not appear like he has 100% recovered from his injury, leading to continued usage for Butler. The Heat are not able to run this offense through Bam anymore, so it is all on Butler’s shoulders the rest of the way. I am expecting the Lakers to finish off the series tonight, but don’t expect Butler to just roll over and hand them a ring. Butler will be fighting until the very end. I am expecting at least 40 minutes from him again tonight.