Joey's NFL Primetime Props 10/13/20
What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my Prop Bets article. In this article I will be outlining one of my favorite Prop bets of the day. To find my other prop bets and all of the other staff’s favorite bets make sure to sign up for the Premium package.
NBA: 4-3 +2.6 units
MLB: 2-0 +2.01 units
NFL: 5-5 -1.54 units
Total: 10-8 +2.07 units
September Record: 58-48 +25.91 units
All Prop lines are based on Draftkings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on time you are reading this or if you are using a different bookie.
Devin Singletary OVER 55.5 rushing yards -125 1.25 units to win 1 unit: Even though Moss is expected to play tonight, I don’t have too much worry that he will steal many carries from Singletary. Moss is more of a receiving and goal line threat, which won’t affect Singletary’s yards that much. Moss had three carries inside the 5 compared to Singletary’s one. The main thing it will effect is his fantasy production, missing goal line work and receiving upside really limits his ceiling. Luckily since we are betting props, we don’t have to worry about that! Singletary did see a boost in rushing attempts, while Moss was out with an injury the past two games. He averaged 9.5 carries the first two games of the season, while averaging 15.5 carries the next two games with Moss out. Clearly this play would be a lock if Moss wasn’t playing. At 15.5 carries a game he would only need to average 3.5 yards per carry to hit the over, but that is why the number is low. The first game of the season Josh Allen had 14 rushing attempts, but that number decreased drastically over the next three games, as we saw Allen take a huge leap from mainly a rusher, who never had a 300-yard passing game to a QB that has hit 300+ yards in 75% of games. He is averaging 331.5 yards per game this year and outside of week one is averaging only three rushing attempts per game, outside of kneel downs at the end of the game.
The Titans have been one of the worst teams against the run this season. They have allowed 100 total rushing yards combined between the top two running backs on the team every game this season. For a team that has won every game this season, that is not a good total based on game script. The one thing the Titans do have going for them is they are one of the best teams in yards before first contact. They are only allowing on average 1.26 yards before contact per rushing attempt, which is 8th best in the league. Luckily Singletary counters this by not having to rely too heavily on his line to get him yards. He is sixth in the league in avoided tackles with 14, but is second in the league in avoided tackles per rush attempt. Averaging 0.28 avoided tackles per attempt. He is also averaging 2.88 yards after contact per attempt which ranks 10th best in the league for players that take over 50% of the snaps for their team this season. The Titans only strength in the rushing game is countered by Singletary’s amazing ability to break tackles and avoid contact. This should lead to an easy over for him tonight. Our projections have him for 71 rushing yards tonight, which is way above this total.