WELCOME TO WEEK 6’S SUNDAY BLITZ REPORT

Zach’s weekly NFL Sunday Blitz Report is – The GAME within the GAME – or your weekly guide to help you decide what to target within each NFL Sunday game. Whether it is a spread, money line, total, teaser, parlay or live trading a game, this article and the BLITZ CHEAT SHEET is here to help you decide where to put your focus, energy and most importantly – MONEY!

 

SEASON PERFORMANCE

SPREAD	TOTAL	EXOTIC	LIVE BET	GAME OF WEEK
11-9-1	7-5	13-5	2-3-2	2-1-2

 

WEEK 5 RECAP

Week 5’s Blitz Report got back on track with a 7-3-1 performance, bringing the Blitz Report to 35-23-5 with this week’s push being the Game of the Week, bringing GOW to 2-1-2 on the season. Houston won outright, and even covered, but because the total just missed going over on the tease, calling GOW a push.

Spreads went an impressive 3-1, with the lone dud being the Seahawks at a steep price -- admittedly I overweighted bad-road Cousins in primetime, especially considering how poor Seahawks defense is. Dolphins, Browns and Cardinals were all easy covers and the right sides.

Totals split 1-1, which in hindsight was because took an under with an overvalued Steelers D and a decimated Eagles D. Baltimore was an easy under, especially seeing how un-explosive Ravens offense is this year with less Jackson running.

The lone Live Bet I am calling a win by the skin of my teeth, as the Falcons went up 7-0, which could have gotten Panthers +4 right off the bat. From there, if took Falcons at their halftime bottom could have had a nice middle opportunity or push.

Exotics went 2-1, as calling the Raiders/Chiefs exotic a loss even though one side of it hit. I recommended taking Raiders/Over or Chiefs/Under which is just not smart. The latter was dead on, but in no circumstance is a Chiefs under vs the Raiders defense a good handicap. Shame on me.

Here is a recap of the cheat sheet from Week 5:

 

Now – for what you are here for, week 6!

WEEK 6

The primary plays worth considering are the following:

SPREAD	TOTAL	EXOTIC	LIVE BET	GAME OF WEEK	OFF GAME
3	2	3	1	1	0

 

FEATURED SPREAD PLAY

Bears @ Panthers

The Bears at +3 we posted in premium already, and I think Bears likely win this straight up. Panthers do have an excellent quarterback who is still underrated, but this Panther defense had outperformed expectations thus far, and I expect the longer the season goes the more they get exposed. Matt Nagy has extra time to get Nick Foles ready for this game and to attack Panther’s weakness – their non-existent run defense. Bears are due to put it together on offense for more than a late comeback, and the Bears defense with two rising cornerbacks are quietly one of the best overall units in the NFL. If healthy, I think this Bears defense will end up top 5 by season’s end and Carolina’s should be bottom 5. For a 4-1 team, albeit sloppy and undeserved, Bears are being undervalued here and Panthers are being given the benefit of the doubt after beating Falcons, Cardinals and Chargers and getting dismantled by the Bucs and run all over by the Raiders.

FEATURED TOTAL PLAY

Bengals @ Colts

The under 46.5 is my favorite total play, though it looks like Colts have some COVID cases, so this game mat be postponed. That said, both these offenses are not great, nor explosive, and if Colts put in a decent defensive performance, I cannot see Bengals scoring more than 20, which puts this right in a 27-20 max range. I look for this game to finish 24-16 with more Colts and Bengals defenders back healthy.

FEATURED EXOTIC PLAY

Jets @ Dolphins

This is an obvious one, but just can’t be confident laying close to 10 points with Dolphins, even versus this lifeless Jets team. So, let’s tease this bad boy down to under 3 and ride it out with a much more comfortable number.

FEATURED LIVE PLAY

Lions @ Jags

This should be Lions all the way with a comeback by the Jaguars. I could see a Colts/Jags type game too, but I think Lions start hot, cool and Minshew magic makes a run in the 4th quarter with a likely DJ Chark back in the lineup. Betting Lions -3 to money line through this game is my favorite play then looking to get Jags +4.5, 7.5 and anything over 10-13 is the kind of stack I’d love to see a middle and Lions win by 4.

OFF PLAY

Falcons @ Vikings

I’m not comfortable playing either of these teams in this spot. Vikings defense is still very bad, especially at getting pressure and at corner, so if Julio Jones plays, there is no way I can lay 4 points with Vikings. If he is not playing, there is no way I can trust Falcons have any type of competent performance as they mourn the loss of their beloved (albeit bad) head coach and GM. The safest play here is to avoid the game or consider a live angle pending what happens in game. If Julio is playing and Falcons start on the right foot, I like them to cover this number at 4, but may be able to get them at 7 in game too.

GAME OF THE WEEK

Packers @ Bucs

Though Lions @ Jags could be my game of the week, this one comes down to two hall of fame QB’s who still have something to prove. Brady looks to have all his weapons back and Rodgers has Adams back. If that holds true, betting 1) Bucs 2) Over 3) Tease Both 4) Tease Packers/Over 5) Live Bet either team down +7 or better if can get it, or hedge some exposure. I do think this game is a toss up, but have a slight lean to the Bucs. Bucs are better than their 3-2 record and if/when this team is healthy enough to get Brady in complete rhythm with the offense, this could be a top 5 offense too. The Bucs D does one thing very well, even without their star DT, and that is stifle the run game. Packers are Rodger’s team, but the coaching staff prefers leaning on the running game, so that little bit of disjointed connection between the two has me thinking somehow Bucs pull this one out, or Rodgers has a vintage final drive comeback win. Both these secondaries are not very good and can give up big plays down the field, so expect a Chargers vs Bucs game more than Bears vs Bucs if looking for something comparable.

CHEAT SHEET

Quick note on the Cheat Sheet, even if a game or side is marked with a clear SPREAD, TOTAL or EXOTIC etc., it does not mean there aren’t other viable options. Sometimes I will note that there are in fact more than one option worth considering. And remember – the Sportfolio trio:  Corey, Brett and I publish our locked in plays every week in the Premium Football channel on Bet Karma’s Discord.

If haven’t checked out the other 2/3’s of our Sportfolio trio, look out for Corey’s weekly handicapping article and Brett’s Sportfolio article, as well as catch our weekly NFL preview podcast The Sports Trading Desk on itunes, Stitcher or YouTube. Our collective Sportfolio picks are only posted in Discord NFL Premium. Sign up at BetKarma.com , follow, and get in the game!