Brad’s Best Bets – College Football – Week 6

College Football Record: 33-24-1 +14.75 units    

 

University of Central Florida (-2.5) at Memphis

Listen, I am all for trends and stats that sway you one way or the other. If you look at the UCF game this week, all the trends tell you to take Memphis. I mean UCF is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. Weird game two weeks ago for the Knights. Dillon Gabriel didn’t not play as expected, but that could be attributed to the poor play calling or the wet conditions. Either way, I am putting a line through the Tulsa game and moving onto the Memphis game. I Fully expect this game to feature a lot of points and two very skilled QBs. The advantage for UCF lies in the secondary. Memphis proved against SMU they have a lot of questions in the secondary that need to be answered. Shane Buechele threw for a total of 456 yards and 3 TDs. That secondary is going to have trouble against the efficient Dillon Gabriel who has thrown for 1,55 yards, 9 TDs and 2 INT. UCF is also coming into this game with a 13-game win streak over Memphis. With a favorable line of -2.5, I will gladly take UCF to win and cover.

Bet 1.5 unit to win 1.3 units on UCF -2.5 (-115)

 

Louisville at #4 Notre Dame (-17)

There was a point of the season where I would’ve told you that Louisville has taken the next step and they are close to being a contender in the ACC. That notion has quickly been dispelled and I will no longer say such foolish things. Not only did the Cardinals embarrass themselves in a disappointing loss to Georgia Tech, they are terrible on the road. We know in 2020 road games are not the same as years past but is not going to affect the way I position my wager on this game. Unfortunately for QB Malik Cunningham, Louisville is lacking in effort on the defensive end. In their game against Georgia Tech, they were outscored 20-0 in the 4th to all but ice the 46-27 victory for the Yellow Jackets. On the other side of the ball we have a vastly underrated Notre Dame team who at the beginning of the season had all the attention on their quarterback. Now that we are a few weeks into the season we have began to realize how special their running back core is. Notre Dame has three weapons out of the backfield to help take some of the pressure off Ian Book. Not one to follow too much “sharp” action but this stood out to me a bit, 53% of the bets are on Notre Dame but over 75% of the money is on them. I have no problem following this trend and taking Notre Dame -17.

Bet 2 units to win 1.96 units on Notre Dame -17 (-115)

 

Another 2-unit play: Clemson -14.5 1H (-110)

1-unit plays: Mississippi St/Texas A&M o55 (-110) Boston College +11 (-115)

I will add all player props on the Bet Karma Discord chat prior to game time