Darnell's Sunday Night Breakdown
Los Angeles Rams (-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (52)
I will call this game the ‘’public perception’’ game of the week. This game will be all about these team's last few weeks. The Rams appeared as if they went tooth and nail with a very good Buffalo Bills team, but came up short. They then played against a terrible Giants team. They did not score a lot, but their defense was great. They followed that game up with a strong effort against the Washington Football Team. That is what the public will see. What I see is the Rams were dead men walking in Buffalo. Buffalo let their foot off the gas and because the Rams have a very good offense, they were able to come back and make it interesting. They came back only to give it up at the end. They then went home and struggled to score against the winless Giants. They followed that up by beating up on a team that hasn’t won since week one. When people look at the 49ers, they will we see a team that got beat at home by the injury-riddled Eagles. They then invited Miami to their stadium and got absolutely lambasted. What I see is a wrong choice at quarterback leading to a hungry Eagles team barely getting by. Jimmy G came back and was rusty, looked out of place and by the time Beathard got in the game, the team was lost for the week. I feel like the Rams are not as good as people think. The 49ers are not as bad as people think. Let’s explore the teams.
The Rams are indeed very good. I still have my reservations if this is due to them being good, or is it because all of their wins have come against the worst division in football. The Rams grade out fantastically offensively, defensively, blocking and receiving. They are very well rounded. Their weakness is having a bottom ten rushing defense. They have only given up 90 points in their five games this season, which is impressive. It does look less impressive once you realize they played the Eagles, Washington and the Giants. Washington and New York are bottom five in points scored. They have scored a decent 136 points so far, however three of their previous opponents rank bottom ten in points allowed.
The 49ers’ clear strength is their defense. They are seventh in coverage, top ten in pass rush, and third when it comes to rushing defense. Overall, they are the third best defense in the NFL. This is after having lost a top three defensive player in Bosa. San Francisco is a middle of the road offensive team. I am sure they would be much better had their quarterback and multiple running backs remained healthy. One of the most under-appreciated metrics is special teams. There is a lot of hidden yardage in special teams. The 49ers are the second worst team in this department.
All in all, this seems to be shaping up to be an interesting Sunday night game. The Rams are looking to keep pace with the first place Seahawks. The 49ers are in a MUST WIN situation if they want a chance to keep their season alive.
49ers 27 Rams 23
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Betting tip of the week: Understand that when betting totals, there is more to it than just how good the offenses and defenses are. There is also the pace of play element. There are teams that play slow, so even if their offense is good, they will kill a lot of clock moving the ball. You also have to be mindful of bad offenses giving their opponents short fields. Short fields make it easier to score. The bottom line is -- take everything under consideration when looking at a bet on totals.