Best Bet of the Week: West Virginia at Texas Tech (+3.5)
Last week, I was ballsy and took South Carolina with my best bet of the week. It paid off. I have no choice but to roll the dice again.
Texas Tech hasn’t been very good this season. Sure, they took Texas to overtime which was unexpected, but their offense the two games since then has scored a combined 36 points.
However, a new QB will be under center for the Red Raiders on Saturday. Matt Wells is turning to Utah State transfer Henry Colombi to make the start. Wells has plenty of familiarity with Colombi, who he coached at Utah State.
Colombi has been incredibly solid this season. Last week, he came in to relieve Alan Bowman and completed 10 of his 12 passes, throwing for 115 yards and a TD. Two weeks ago against Kansas State, he went 30-42 for 244 yards. He has been hands down the best quarterback for Tech this season, and now he’s is finally getting a shot.
I expect this offense with Colombi as the starter to be much, much better than we have seen in recent weeks, and create some problems for this Mountaineer defense.
I am a little concerned about Texas Tech’s defense against this vaunted WVU rushing attack, which could turn this game into a shootout. But a high scoring game at home should play to the Red Raiders advantage.
The public is pounding West Virginia. That makes me feel even better about taking Tech with the points.
The play: Texas Tech +3.5 (-110) for 2 units
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#9 Cincinnati at #16 SMU (-2.5)
A battle of unbeatens highlights this week’s AAC slate. I was really surprised to see the line here. I figured Cincy would be the favorite, but they are a 2.5 dog.
The reason I’m surprised is because the Bearcats have been extremely dominant this season, winning each of their games by double digits. SMU, on the other hand, has slipped past several of their opponents. They beat Tulane by just 3 last week.
Look for Cincy’s defense to carry them to a win on Saturday. The Bearcats rank 6th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 12 points a game.
The play: Cincinnati ML (+125) for 1.5 units
Southern Miss at Liberty (-11)
Liberty is 5-0 after a 38-21 dismantling of Syracuse last week. Their offense was explosive, going for over 500 yards. Auburn transfer Malik Willis continues to impress at QB, but they were finally able to get RB Shedro Louis going last week, who went for 170 yards vs Cuse.
Liberty’s defense is even better than their offense. The Flames have a top 10 scoring defense nationally, and I just don’t see a way for Southern Miss to get anything going against them.
Liberty routs USM tomorrow, who are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games dating back to last season.
The play: Liberty -11 (-110) for 1.5 units