Bales' Best NFL Bet (Week 7)
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Bales' Best NFL Bet (Week 7)

Justin Bales
10-23-2020

Welcome to my newest edition of Bales' Best NFL Bet. In this article, I will outline my favorite bet for Week 7 of the NFL season. You can also find all of Bet Karma's staff bets through our NFL Premium Package. 

Keep in mind, you should always be shopping sportsbooks for the best price. Some props will be a few yards different while some spreads could be an entire point different. Getting the best number possible is one main key to being a successful bettor. 

 

Seattle Seahawks (-177) vs Arizona Cardinals (+155)

The Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals will face off in one of the best games of the week. The Seahawks are currently -3.5 point favorites in a game set at 56 points, giving them an implied team total of 29.8 points. 

D.K. Metcalf has been one of the top receiving options in the NFL in 2020. He boasts 22 receptions for 496 yards and 5 touchdowns on 39 targets in 2020. He’s seen 6+ targets in each of his 5 games, totaling at least 4 receptions and 90 yards in each game, as well. He’s coming off his most targeted game, though, totaling 6 receptions for 93 yards and 2 touchdowns on 11 targets against the Minnesota Vikings. 

Metcalf has played a position-high 95.6% of the offensive snaps for Seattle this season. He’s turned a team-high 24.2% target share into 17.9% of Seattle’s receptions, 33% of receiving yards, and 26.3% of receiving touchdowns. Metcalf owns an elite 22.5 yards per reception, which is over 5 yards more than David Moore, who ranks second on the team in that category. 

Metcalf features one of the highest aDOT’s in the NFL at 16.3. He’s also seen 636 air yards, accounting for 44.5% of Seattle’s air yards this season. In other words, Metcalf is generally targeted on deep balls, allowing him to beat this prop with only a few catches rather than elite volume. 

He gets an interesting matchup against the Arizona Cardinals this weekend. They’re only allowing 226.5 passing yards per game while holding their opponents to 6.9 adjusted yards per attempt in 2020. With that being said, they have yet to face an elite passing attack like Seattle, or even an elite quarterback. Their toughest matchup to date likely came against the Detroit Lions. Aside from Matthew Stafford, they faced the likes of Jimmy Garoppolo, Dwayne Haskins, Teddy Bridgewater, Joe Flacco, and Andy Dalton. 

Metcalf is a big-bodied, ultra-athletic receiver that only needs a few catches to top this receiving prop. Oddly enough, his total is listed slightly lower than Tyler Lockett’s. Metcalf has yet to post fewer than 90 receiving yards in a game, and it’s highly unlikely he dips below 70 in what should be a plus matchup against Arizona this weekend. 

Bet 1.12 units on D.K. Metcalf over 68.5 receiving yards (-112) to win 1 unit

 

2020 NFL Season Record - 17-18 (+0.46 unit)

 


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