NFL SUNDAY BLITZ REPORT - WEEK 7
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NFL SUNDAY BLITZ REPORT - WEEK 7

Zach James
10-23-2020

WELCOME TO WEEK 7’S SUNDAY BLITZ REPORT

Zach’s weekly NFL Sunday Blitz Report is – The GAME within the GAME – or your weekly guide to help you decide what to target within each NFL Sunday game. Whether it is a spread, money line, total, teaser, parlay or live trading a game, this article and the BLITZ CHEAT SHEET is here to help you decide where to put your focus, energy and most importantly – MONEY!

 

SEASON PERFORMANCE

SPREAD

TOTAL

EXOTIC

LIVE BET

GAME OF WEEK

13-10-1

8-6

15-5-1

2-3-3

2-1-3

On the season, the Blitz Report is holding steady at 40-25-8, with the Game of the Week being net +1 on the season. Week 7 has so far been the hardest to handicap, but because of that, I spent extra time turning every stone – until COVID turns another one after this article’s posting – I see you Saints…

 

WEEK 6 RECAP

Week 6 was far and away the best week of the season for me personally, and the Blitz Report did a solid 5-2-3. Apologies on skipping by the 49ers games – a technical oversight, for if following in discord premium, we had 49ers across the board and in Core – and it was a top play for me as well.

In unfamiliar territory, I graded out 3 pushes which I want to detail quickly. I posted Eagles money line as an “exotic,” but because they covered the spread, I figure the value would have been to play Eagles money line at +300+ and split it with the spread as a modest hedge. Typically, I recommend this split in the note, but for some reason I only recommended a long odds dog. To say, that would not grade out as a poor recommendation when the dog covers and came within a two-point conversion of tying at the end of the game – hence the push. I am grading Lions Live Play a push even though I recommended Lions 1st half which covered and the lions to win/cover because I expected a Jags comeback that would have set up for some nice middling opportunity. The important half of this push was right, but the latter part did not go our way. The last push was the Game of the Week – Bucs/Packers. As predicted, Bucs was the right side, and could have gotten them at all kinds of good numbers down 10. That said, once Bucs got up big, Packers and the over were dead in the water, so grading this as another push, as shouldn’t have lost much if at all on this play.

My favorite spreads of the week Bears and Steelers cashed with ease, losing only the heartbreaking bad beat of Texans +3.5 due to overtime rules and a fortunate turn of events by the Titans against an abhorrent Texans defense.

The two under recommendations are right in line with NFL trends around the league in week 6, but on whiffed on the Bengals under and nailed the Broncos under.

Exotics went 2-0-1 with the two easy winners being a Dolphins and Washington Football team tease, the latter of which could have easily lost by a touchdown.

Here is a recap of the cheat sheet from Week 6:

 

Now – for what you are here for, week 7!

WEEK 7

The primary plays worth considering are the following:

SPREAD

TOTAL

EXOTIC

LIVE BET

GAME OF WEEK

OFF GAME

4

3

3

1

1

0

 

FEATURED SPREAD PLAY

Bucs @ Raiders

I leaned Bucs hard at -3 and even -3.5. Now that it is -4, I am skeptical, but with the COVID issues surrounding Raiders, I think this is a play on Bucs up to -6. Either Bucs bring it and continue momentum from the Packers game, scoring at will, or they lay an egg. I just don’t buy this team with Brady will let their guard down after one solid win at home early in the season. Raiders are also likely missing their best defensive player in this game so Bucs is the play of the week for spreads. Bucs should win by double digits if just play a competent game.

 

FEATURED TOTAL PLAY

49ers @ Patriots

Patriots lack offensive gamebreakers and that plays right into a banged-up defenses hands (see Broncos) On the flip side, with no Mostert and Jimmy G going up against former head coach mastermind Bill, hard to see 49ers having their best offensive performance of the season, likely needed, to cover this total. Even with a defensive score and a wealth of turnovers, hard to see this game going over 44 points. At 41-44, I’d lean under regardless of the number. 21-20, 24-20, 21-17 are about where this game should land at its ceiling.

 

FEATURED EXOTIC PLAY

Chiefs @ Broncos

Teaser of Chiefs and the Under is what I recommend here. Chiefs should win this by a FG at least and the snow storm that should blanket this game should make points at a premium. Typically, it’s best to avoid teasing totals, especially unders (with OT in play) but in this particular game, I can’t see this being a 31-20 type game which is what it would have to be to go over the tease. At worst, 27-21 is closest it gets. But leaning a 24-13 type game.

 

FEATURED LIVE PLAY

Pitt @ Tenn

Though I lean Steelers here, I think the best angle for this game is to live bet it. Can lead out whichever side you think gets up early, but then if Steelers are getting passed on, I can see this being a volatile game or Steeler blowout. Titans D is just not good as we have seen all season and Steelers get Dionte Johnson back at wide receiver. Big Ben is still getting his footing and is always capable of that 6 TD game or 5 Int game, but I think the pulse on this Steeler team might be different than year’s past, and so looking for Steelers + Spread / + Money and trying to middle/hedge the other way is what I recommend here.

 

GAME OF THE WEEK

Lions @ Falcons

Another Lions Game of the Week! Why? Volatility!! Lions got healthier and better situated off the bye, and Falcons got Julio back last week. I lean lions here, so betting Lions and the Over is the preferred plays. Also teasing both teams with the over looks as good as can be as well. Either team going down by 14+ points I would bet no problem, unless there is catastrophic injuries to Julio/Golloday. I wish both these teams were playing other squads this week, as both I’d be backing if so. Since that can’t happen here, let’s bet on volatility and points. Both these defenses have awful secondaries and both these offenses should get better as season goes along with top 5 talent on both. 

CHEAT SHEET

Quick note on the Cheat Sheet, even if a game or side is marked with a clear SPREAD, TOTAL or EXOTIC etc., it does not mean there aren’t other viable options. Sometimes I will note that there are in fact more than one option worth considering. And remember – the Sportfolio trio:  Corey, Brett and I publish our locked in plays every week in the Premium Football channel on Bet Karma’s Discord.

If haven’t checked out the other 2/3’s of our Sportfolio trio, look out for Corey’s weekly handicapping article and Brett’s Sportfolio article, as well as catch our weekly NFL preview podcast The Sports Trading Desk on itunes, Stitcher or YouTube. Our collective Sportfolio picks are only posted in Discord NFL Premium. Sign up at BetKarma.com , follow, and get in the game!


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