Bales' Best NFL Bet (Week 8)
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Bales' Best NFL Bet (Week 8)

Justin Bales
10-30-2020

Welcome to my newest edition of Bales' Best NFL Bet. In this article, I will outline my favorite bet for Week 8 of the NFL season. You can also find all of Bet Karma's staff bets through our NFL Premium Package. 

Keep in mind, you should always be shopping sportsbooks for the best price. Some props will be a few yards different while some spreads could be an entire point different. Getting the best number possible is one main key to being a successful bettor. 

 

Los Angeles Rams (-195) vs Miami Dolphins (+165)

The Los Angeles Rams will travel across the country to play the Miami Dolphins this weekend. Still, the Rams are -3.5 point favorites in a game set at 46 points, giving them an implied team total of 24.8 points. 

Cooper Kupp has been the top receiving option for Los Angeles this season. He boasts 37 receptions for 417 yards and 2 touchdowns on 51 targets. Kupp is coming off of a pair of bad games, totaling 54 receiving yards on 9 receptions (15 targets) against the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers. In his 4 games prior to those, he averaged 6 receptions for 80.8 yards and 0.5 touchdowns on 7.8 targets per game. He posted 66+ yards in each of those games, as well. 

Kupp has played 86.5% of the offensive snaps for Los Angeles this season. He’s turned a team-high 23.8% target share into 24.5% of the team’s receptions, 23.3% of the receiving yards, and 16.7% of the receiving touchdowns. He’s only averaging 11.3 yards per reception, although that dropped significantly over his last pair of contests. In his first 5 games, he averaged 13 yards per reception. 

Kupp has only seen 342 air yards with a 6.7 aDOT this season. He’s seen 21.9% of Los Angeles’ air yards in 2020. He does boast one of the highest yards after catch per reception (6.9) in the NFL this season, furthering Kupp’s ability to create his own yards whenever the ball is in his hands. 

He gets a plus matchup against the Miami Dolphins this week. Miami is only allowing 236 passing yards per game in 2020. They’re also allowing 7.1 adjusted yards per attempt this season. Most importantly, the Dolphins have struggled against slot receivers. 

Nik Needham has graded out as one of the worst cornerbacks in the NFL and the second-worst slot corner in the league. He’s allowing a 79% catch rate and 1.56 yards per route covered, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). Kupp should have one of the biggest advantages on the slate, and Los Angeles is likely to attack arguably the worst part of Miami’s defense. 

One of the most important parts of this play, specifically for this week, is the weather. There are a plethora of games with 20+ MPH winds throughout the entire game, but this isn’t one of them. The Los Angeles passing attack should continue as normal, making Kupp an elite bet at less than 60 receiving yards. 

Bet 1.12 units on Cooper Kupp over 58.5 receiving yards (-112) to win 1 unit

 

2020 NFL Season Record - 19-20 (+0.22 unit)

 


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