WELCOME TO WEEK 8’S SUNDAY BLITZ REPORT

Zach’s weekly NFL Sunday Blitz Report is – The GAME within the GAME – or your weekly guide to help you decide what to target within each NFL Sunday game. Whether it is a spread, money line, total, teaser, parlay or live trading a game, this article and the BLITZ CHEAT SHEET is here to help you decide where to put your focus, energy and most importantly – MONEY! 

 

SEASON PERFORMANCE

SPREAD	TOTAL	EXOTIC	LIVE BET	GAME OF WEEK
15-12-1	11-6-0	17-6-1	3-3-3	2-1-4

 

WEEK 7 RECAP

Week 7 was another strong week, finishing 8-3-1 and bringing the season total to 48-28-9 on the Sunday Blitz Report recommendations.

Spreads went 2-2, although had the Browns made the extra point at the end of the game or had you gotten the -3 instead of -3.5, a push or win would have hit. The other loss was the Bills not covering the Jets, a game I began to flip on until hearing Jamison Crowder was out. The Bucs and Panthers were easy covers.

Totals went a perfect 3-0 with the 49ers game and the Cowboys game going under and the Seattle game going over.

Live Play nailed it, as I leaned Steelers and suggested getting the down team on a comeback which the Titans did down 24-7 and only lost by 3. Could have had huge middle opportunities if loved Steelers like I did to start the week, but knew Titans had the weapons and team makeup to mount a valiant comeback and make it a close final score.

Exotics went 2-1, with the lone loss being the tease under for the Chiefs game, and in hindsight that was not a strong +EV play in general. Teasing Green Bay wasn’t needed and won with ease, but teasing Jags was exactly right, as just can’t trust such a bad team to be up 7 late in the game and not lose by 10 still, which is exactly what happened.

Here is a recap of the cheat sheet from Week 7:

 

Now – for what you are here for, week 8!

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WEEK 8

The primary plays worth considering are the following:

SPREAD	TOTAL	EXOTIC	LIVE BET	GAME OF WEEK	OFF GAME
3	3	3	1	0	2

FEATURED SPREAD PLAY

Patriots @ Bills

Patriots are +4 vs division rival Bills, a Bills team that is inconsistent, banged up and just not as potent on defense or in the running game as last year. On the flip side, Bill’s Patriots are struggling themselves having laid two offensive duds in a row against the Broncos and 49ers. Cam Newton has not looked good, but in a bad weather game like this one is supposed to be, and two teams struggling to just play 4 decent quarters, I think these running QB type defensive minded coaches are going to play keep away power football and Patriots find a way to cover and maybe even pull out the victory outright. I’ve never been high on the Bills, and think they peaked at the start of the season since they had the most continuity coming into a shortened off-season in the NFL. Teams with more talent are now catching up. This may prove

FEATURED TOTAL PLAY

Saints @ Bears

The under on this game is safest for my taste, in part because both Michael Thomas and Allen Robinson look to be out. Without Allen Robinson, Nick Foles has limited options, especially down field. Bears already can’t run the ball, but now going against a Saints defense they will have next to no success running it. Bears defense is good enough to keep Saints at bay, and so a max score of 24-20 seems right, but I think a 23-17 game is likely where this game ends up ceiling wise.

FEATURED EXOTIC PLAY

Titans @ Bengals

Teasing Titans to even or -1 looks like the best play of the week. Burrow is going to be missing Mixon once again, but also three offensive linemen, an already weak group for the Bengals. Titans are rebounding from that Steelers game, and this one could turn to a blow out late.

FEATURED LIVE PLAY

Raiders @ Browns

This game I am looking for volatility as both defenses lack the ability to stop functioning offenses. I lean Raiders to pull the upset, but would prefer +4.5-7.5 if can get it and would take Browns spread on a hedge/middle opportunity. OBJ being out I do not think is a huge downgrade for this Browns offense with the emergence of some young talent, and both these offensive lines are top 10 in the NFL. Points should be scored in droves, so buying dips to get the over is what I’ll be looking for as well.

OFF PLAY

2 games Jets @ Chiefs + Dallas @ Eagles

Both these games are big numbers with bad teams and situations. No way am I risking money on Dallas or Jets, both more injured now than to start last week verse the best team in the NFL and a division rival. That said, I could also see both covering or getting blown out. Off on both.

GAME OF THE WEEK

For the first time this season, there is no Game of the Week. These games are all full of variables that don’t seem to paint clear pictures of game scripts, and in fact, I think this is going to be a low scoring week across the board, thus we may have less volatility to top it off.

CHEAT SHEET

Quick note on the Cheat Sheet, even if a game or side is marked with a clear SPREAD, TOTAL or EXOTIC etc., it does not mean there aren’t other viable options. Sometimes I will note that there are in fact more than one option worth considering. And remember – the Sportfolio trio:  Corey, Brett and I publish our locked in plays every week in the Premium Football channel on Bet Karma’s Discord.

If haven’t checked out the other 2/3’s of our Sportfolio trio, look out for Corey’s weekly handicapping article and Brett’s Sportfolio article, as well as catch our weekly NFL preview podcast The Sports Trading Desk on itunes, Stitcher or YouTube. Our collective Sportfolio picks are only posted in Discord NFL Premium. Sign up at BetKarma.com , follow, and get in the game!