NFL Prop Predictor - Week 8 TEN/CIN

Get access to our proprietary NFL Prop Predictor by signing up for NFL Premium or MVP by going to BetKarma.com/Premium. Each week I will focus on one of the matchups featured in the Prop Predictor and give my 2 cents on what the betting model is telling us. For Week 8, I will focus on the Titans/Bengals game.

 

TENNESSEE TITANS (-7) vs CINCINNATI BENGALS (+7)

Over/Under 51

 

Derrick Henry Over/Under 8.5 receiving yards (over -125)

Karma Grade: A+

Karma side: Over

Obviously, we know that Henry runs the ball a lot. What most people do not realize is Henry averages 2.8 targets a game with 13.5 receiving yards/game. Tennessee is 2nd in the league for target % between 0-9 yards and the Bengals are 4th in allowing that target depth range. Bengals are only allowing 4 receiving yards/ game for opposing RB’s which is why I think Vegas has this prop lower than our prediction model of 12.5. Lastly, Henry is top 3 for RB’s broken tackles. He may not see a ton of targets, but it just takes one and then you must make sure you actually tackle him, Norman learned the hard way!!

 

Joe Burrow Over/Under 12.5 rushing yards (over -134)

Karma Grade: A

Karma side: Over

Burrow holds a 11.3% rushing MS with 6.7 rushing yards/game… this is just designed runs. When you add in the scramble yards Burrow averages 2 scrambles with 10.6 yards/game. So far Tennessee is allowing 13.5 rushing yards against quarterbacks. The Titans do not put pressure on the QB ranking 30th in QB sack %. I see a slight increase in Burrow’s rushing attempts in the past 3 weeks (1, 2, 5). Burrow QB rating has also steadily increased in the past 3 weeks (66.4, 78.3, 112.5). This tells me Burrow is increasing his QB IQ and when to tuck and run as opposed to forcing the throw.

 

Joe Burrow Over/Under 289.5 passing yards (over -112)

Karma Grade: B

Karma side: Under 

There have been weather reports of 15-20 mph winds and gusts of up to 30 mph. Burrow leads the league in AY. The Bengals are 8th in net yards/ pass attempt. Karma projection has Burrows passing yards at 257, 32 yards less than the prop. Cincinnati is 6th in target % between 10-19 yards. Cincinnati averages 4.7 deep attempts/ game, but the Titans don’t give up the explosive pass ranking 27th for target depth 20+ yards at just over 7%. I expect Joe to take some chances, but I do not see him being successful limiting his passing yards in a windy matchup.

 

Drew Sample Over/Under 23.5 receiving yards (over -112)

Karma Grade: D

Karma side: Over

Drew’s snap % has been steadily increasing as the season goes along. He averages 76%, but last week was there for 97% of snaps! Burrow has also targeted him at least once every game and is now averaging 3.6 targets/game with 24.9 receiving yards/game. The Titans let up 59 receiving yards/game to tight ends. Zone coverage has been the only coverage Cincinnati utilizes Sample and he holds a 96.3 passer rating in zone coverage while Tennessee runs zone coverage 56% of the time. Karma projects Sample to have 26.98 tomorrow and if his snap % stays there I’d be confident to project even more.

 

Giovani Bernard Over/Under 28.5 receiving yards (over -112)

Karma Grade: A+

Karma side: Under

 

Giovani “Mustache” Bernard is averaging 3 receptions/game with 24.9 receiving yards. The Titans do not allow much to happen for pass catch running backs allowing 28.5 receiving yards/game. Burrow favors his WR 68% of the time which is 3rd in the league and with the Titans CB injury situation this is too good of a matchup to stop now. The line is set at Gio’s ceiling and while he could get a screen and bust one to the house Karma’s prop model projects 20.27 receiving yards making this the best bet for the game.