Joey's NFL Primetime Props 11/02/20
What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my Prop Bets article. In this article I will be outlining one of my favorite Prop bets of the day. To find my other prop bets and all of the other staff’s favorite bets make sure to sign up for the Premium package.
NBA: 4-3 +2.6 units
MLB: 2-0 +2.01 units
NFL: 28-24 +5.65 units
Total: 34-27 +9.26 units
September Record: 58-48 +25.91 units
All Prop lines are based on Draftkings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on time you are reading this or if you are using a different bookie.
Rob Gronkowski to score a touchdown +190 1 unit to win 1.9 units:
Rob Gronkowski and Tom Brady finally seem to have hit their groove again. After starting the season with two receptions on four targets, generating 11 yards, correlating with Brady’s bad start. He is averaging 4.0 receptions on 6.4 targets and 53.8 yards, hauling in two touchdowns in those five games as well. This equates to TE5 during that time. More importantly, he has seen the most endzone targets for TEs with six, leading to his two touchdowns. He is also leading TEs with 12 redzone targets. On top on that, he has the highest aDOT among TEs playing 50% of the snaps, at an average depth of target of 11.81 yards. All pointing to Gronk having a huge game.
Gronk will be lined up on Blake Martinez for a majority of the game, who has been great. He is allowing a target on only 11% of routes covered and 0.16 fantasy points per route covered. One of his faults is his 83% catch%. So, he is great at denying targets, but when he is targeted, he has a tough time denying turning that target into a reception. He is only allowing 7.5 yards per reception, which is one of the best among all linebackers. The one spot where Gronk has the advantage is in the endzone, which is perfect for this touchdown prop. He has 4 inches and over 30 pounds on Martinez. As well as, seeing Gronk lined out wide, when close to the goal line. This should lead to even more mismatches in the redzone for easy touchdown oppurtunities.
The Giants have been bad at allowing scoring drives this season. They allowing a score on 46% of all drives. The Giants have not been able to slow teams down, giving up the second most redzone drives in the league. Their opposing team gets to the redzone 4.3 times per game. Even though, they allow teams in the redzone, they have been great at denying teams after reaching the redzone. Teams are only scoring a touchdown on 53% of redzone opportunities. Giants allow 2.3 of their 2.7 offensive scores given up in the redzone. At this 85% rate they are great at containing big scores.
This bodes well for Tampa, who gets to the redzone 4.0 times per game, ranking 6th best in the league. They also score at the second highest rate in the redzone, at 78%. Tampa should have an easy time in the redzone and with Gronk being Brady’s favorite redzone target. I have no doubt that +190 is way too much value for this bet.