Will's Best Bets - College Football - Week 9

2020 College Football Record:

7-3, +6.83 units

 

Best Bet of the Week: #14 Oklahoma State at Kansas State (+12.5)

I’ve gone 5-0 on college football bets the last two weeks, and two of those plays have come from the Big 12 conference. I’m sticking with the Big 12 here for my free play of the week.

When I checked this line I had to blink twice. I couldn’t believe it. These are two teams that are right next to each other at the top of the Big 12 standings, yet the home team is a massive underdog. 

Yes, I understand that Kansas State was destroyed last week by West Virginia, (which didn’t surprise me since I had WVU -5) but the Wildcats caught the Mountaineers at a bad time. QB Will Howard played poorly, and nothing went right for K-State. I see a big bounce back game this week from the Wildcats.

Oklahoma State is also coming off of a loss, 41-34 to Texas in overtime. For the first time this season, their defense didn’t step up to the plate. While Will Howard is no Sam Ehlinger, I do believe he can find success against this OKST defense. This backup led K-State to a couple of big wins in the weeks after Skylar Thompson’s injury. For him, the more reps he gets, the more comfortable he will be leading this offense. With a couple starts under his belt now, he’ll be more ready this week against the Cowboys. 

I don’t deny that Oklahoma State will likely win this game, but the spread here is just too valuable not to take. This will be a hard fought battle that will come down to the very end, and Kansas State should cover the +12.5. 

The play: Kansas State +12.5 (-110), 1.5 units to win 1.36 units. 

 

For more plays, go premium. 

 

#5 Georgia vs #8 Florida (+3.5)

And now to Jacksonville for one of the biggest games of the week! The Dawgs have had the Gator's number in recent memory. Georgia has won the last three meetings, and six of the last nine. Florida knows that, and the Gators are going to come to fight on Saturday.
Let me cut to the chase: Florida is the superior team here. They have the better offense, and the much better QB. Kyle Trask is a Heisman candidate, with 18 TDs and just 2 INTs on the season. Georgia QB Stetson Bennett is struggling, throwing five interceptions and just two touchdowns in his last two games. Florida has the #2 passing offense in the conference while Georgia ranks 10th in that category.

I think the Gators get the job done tomorrow, behind an outstanding performance from Kyle Trask. 

The play: Florida +3.5 (-110), 1 unit to win 0.91 units. 

 

#1 Clemson at #4 Notre Dame (+6.5) 

I don’t think I’ve ever bet against Clemson, but I gotta do it this week. They barely survived Boston College last week at home, now they have to go to South Bend to take on a top 5 Notre Dame team.

Give D.J. Uiagalelei a ton of credit, he was fantastic in his first career start last week and led that comeback. But Notre Dame is not Boston College and he might struggle on Saturday. Notre Dame has arguably the best defense in the entire country, giving up just 10 PPG. They rank 1st in the ACC in scoring defense and passing defense. This will be a very difficult matchup for the young quarterback. 

Ian Book has been solid this season for the Fighting Irish, with 7 TDs and just one INT. If he protects the football and doesn’t make any mistakes, he can lead Notre Dame past Clemson. 

Ultimately, these two teams will meet again in the ACC Championship and Clemson will win that battle with Trevor Lawrenence. Tomorrow though, will be Notre Dame’s day.

The play: Notre Dame +6.5 (-110), 1 unit to win 0.91 units.