Brad’s Best Bets – College Football – Week 9
2020 College Football Record: 44-35-4 +15.45 units
Last week in college football, America really felt the effects of COVID-19 and how easily it could change the landscape of the entire college football season as Heisman front runner and future #1 overall NFL draft pick Trevor Lawrence was sidelined with the virus.
Another week of College Football is upon us, and yet again we are dealing with game cancellations and roster changes with players dealing with COVID-19. With that being said, college football continues, and we look to continue a solid season with another profitable week.
Last weekend Jim Harbaugh and the Michigan Wolverines fell at the hands of their across state rival Michigan State to the tune of 24-27. Many might say Harbaugh is on the hot seat, I’d have to agree. Luckily for Coach Harbaugh, they are presented with a very winnable game against the Indiana Hoosiers.
When looking for games to back, it is very important you find teams that are either very hot or find themselves in favorable matchups. This game features the latter. Michigan owns the series between the two with their current winning streak at 24 games. The last time Indiana was victorious against the Wolverines was 1988. This is a great bounce back spot for Harbaugh and his team.
Before Michigan’s tough loss against the Michigan State Spartans, the were 5-0 against the spread as favorites. Michigan looks to have found their quarterback in Joe Milton. Milton had a solid game against Michigan State despite struggling to find the endzone. He finished the game completing 32/51 of his passes for 300 yards and added another 59 yards on the ground through 12 carries. If Harbaugh allows Milton the freedom necessary, this could be a long game for the Hoosier.
Indiana on the other hand is not a team I am very worried about. Michael Penix Jr and the Indiana offense des not scare me. With all the preseason hype, I expected Penix and the Hoosier offense to make major leaps. That has not been the case.
With the current win streak at 24 and Michigan 5-1 against the spread, I will take Michigan -4 (-110) for three units to win 2.72 units.
Prior to the start of the season, this was slated as the biggest game of the season. With Trevor Lawrence sidelined due to COVID-19 the appeal dropped just a little. But to me and many College Football lovers, the anticipation of this game did not drop much. Coming into this game, neither team have been all that great at covering the season. However, both teams are both undefeated and have both the ACC Championship and National Championship in their sights. So, you better believe both teams will be up for this game.
Clemson might have lost Trevor Lawrence for this game, but former five-star quarterback DJ Uiagalelei is ready for his time in the spotlight. Last week Clemson struggled early against Boston College and found themselves in a hole at halftime. With the strong effort from their defense and great quarterback play from DJ Uiagalelei they were able to hold Boston College to under 70 yards in the second half and come out victorious.
With an extra week of practice, you better believe this offense will be ready for the tall task that sits in front of them. Clemson has failed to cover in their last two games, but that does not worry me. When Clemson has big games Dabo Sweeny has his boys up and ready to play. When I went back and looked, Clemson generally struggles to cover at home versus large underdogs with very large spreads. When they are on the road as favorites they generally cover; they have covered in 11 of their last 13 games.
On the other side of the ball you have a very solid Notre Dame team lead by star quarterback Ian Book. On paper this team checks all the boxes. A stout defense, a solid quarterback, and a good running game. But for this game we are going to have to look at this subjectively. When is the last time Notre Dame has won a big game? Honestly, when is the last time Notre Dame has been close in a big game? Can’t remember? That’s because they do not show up for big games.
The line movement is keeping me from making this a three- or four-unit play. But I am comfortable betting two units to win 1.81 units on Clemson -6.
Leans: Michigan St +5.5 & Moneyline | Tennessee Moneyline | Florida/Georgia o54 points