Welcome to Week 9’s Sunday Blitz Report

Zach’s weekly NFL Sunday Blitz Report is – The GAME within the GAME – or your weekly guide to help you decide what to target within each NFL Sunday game. Whether it is a spread, money line, total, teaser, parlay or live trading a game, this article and the BLITZ CHEAT SHEET is here to help you decide where to put your focus, energy and most importantly – Money!

 

Season Performance

SPREAD	TOTAL	EXOTIC	LIVE BET	GAME OF WEEK
17-13-1	11-9	18-8-1	3-3-4	2-1-4

51-34-10 on the Season.

 

Week 8 Recap

Week 8 was the Blitz Report’s worst week, and it seems to have aligned with traveling across the world during the middle of the week. No excuses though, let’s see where we went wrong –

There was no Game of the Week because the entire slate seemed very unappealing and there was low conviction of game scripts across the board. Still 51-34-10 on the Season

Spreads did well going 2-1, with the lone loss being the Jared Goff poop party down in Miami. Goff under pressure is Nathan Peterman bad, and so the Tua fade never came to fruition even though he had a QBR of 25. Patriots and especially Seattle were easy covers in the end, as expected.

Totals is where got hammered at going 0-3, as had three Unders on the wrong three games. The Bears/Broncos/Ravens games all went over by a seeming mile, and so just not a good week diagnosing those game flows.

Live Bet was a push, as suggested taking both teams if down, which would have gotten an okay price on Raiders first, then Browns based on game script, and so would have basically got nowhere.

Exotics went 1-2 with the Packers and Titans teases being dead in the water by half time. Bad spots against bad teams trending up is never a good idea to lay TD worth of points. The lone winner was the Colts, who easily finished off Detroit down the stretch of the 2nd half.

We also had 2 Off Games last week, so with no Game of the Week, it should have been obvious this was an EXTREMELY low conviction week for the Blitz Report, and frankly, the results showed that.

Here is a recap of the cheat sheet from Week 8:

 

Now – for what you are here for, week 9!

 

Week 9

The primary plays worth considering are the following:

SPREAD	TOTAL	EXOTIC	LIVE BET	GAME OF WEEK	OFF GAME
4	2	3	1	1	1

 

Featured Spread Play

Saints @ Bucs

This is the first time I am going to point this out on the Blitz Report, but I am 8-0 on picking the right side of Tompa Bay games this year. And so this week, let’s see if the trend continues! Saints +4.5, as would buy up to the hook, as looks like Michael Thomas is a go, and with it being a division game, both teams should have success throwing and struggle running it. This should open up bigger plays down the field, create more scoring opportunities, and thus it should be a volatile game that comes down to the last couple drives. This is a hard one, because I do think Bucs pull it out, but I think by a FG is the most probable. I also see a scenario where the getting Antonio Brown acclimated distraction is a net negative on this game.

Featured Total Play

Bears @ Titans

Bears and Titans sit right at about 48 points, and I have this score falling somewhere between Bears 20+ points and Titans 27+ points, which at its bottom is 47. One more score and we cap the over. Bears do have O-line issues, but with baffling bad Clowney out anyway and a Titans defense still waiting to get their corners back healthy, Bears should find similar success that the Bengals did last week, or be able to score late if get down big early. 34-27 is my high point if both offenses are clicking early, so might be good spot to consider a live play and look to middle too. That is because the Bears D can get stops, so I don’ think Titans can get more than 27-35 points here.

Featured Exotic Play

Texans @ Jaguars

Texans having the bye to get a fully healthy offense and sure up their glaring issues on defense should provide the keys to this game. These teams just played, and though it was close early, Jaguars just couldn’t score with Minshew. Perhaps Luton the rookie from Oregon State can find some success with his weapons, but I think that is mitigated by Texans patching up their Defense. Texans tease, and then even look to tease the under, as I think byes help defenses most, so both teams should be able to get stops before Watson get going late.

Featured Live Play

Raiders @ Chargers

Points Points Points. This game simple really. Take the team down 10+ points and then hedge/middle the other way when/if it’s close in the end of 2nd or 3rd quarter. I lean with the market and Raiders here because of coaching, but this spot screams Chargers as the right side, so I cannot in confidence give a good recommendation either way, hence why live playing for points/middle is not only the safest route, but could prove to be the most profitable.

Off Play

Detroit @ Minnesota

I leaned Minnesota, but can see Detroit back door covering here too if Stafford plays. But because of the lack of line and Stafford maybe not being available, I prefer to lay off this one, at least for now.

Game of the Week

Panthers @ Chiefs

I love that this is a flat spot for the Chiefs. It doesn’t mean Chiefs won’t score, they will at ease vs the Panthers defense, but I just don’t see the Chiefs as a team having any reason to even play this game. I think they would be better served on the season not to even play it. They are playing a non-playoff NFC team that likely turns into a shootout. And with CMC back, I love Panthers to be able to move the ball and now punch it in the endzone vs a Chiefs defense coming off playing teams like the Broncos and Jets. Chiefs have also shown a penchant to play down to competition or up this season, where as Panthers have shown they can play strong vs the AFC West. Panthers Spread, The Over, Tease Both, and then tease both the other way. I also can see a Panthers upset here if Chiefs come out too flat and Panthers capitalize. So it could be worth seeing how the Panthers offense fairs in the first quarter to gage if a money line play and hedge the other way might actually be worth it.

Cheat Sheet

Quick note on the Cheat Sheet, even if a game or side is marked with a clear SPREAD, TOTAL or EXOTIC etc., it does not mean there aren’t other viable options. Sometimes I will note that there are in fact more than one option worth considering. And remember – the Sportfolio trio:  Corey, Brett and I publish our locked in plays every week in the Premium Football channel on Bet Karma’s Discord.

 

If haven’t checked out the other 2/3’s of our Sportfolio trio, look out for Corey’s weekly handicapping article and Brett’s Sportfolio article, as well as catch our weekly NFL preview podcast The Sports Trading Desk on itunes, Stitcher or YouTube. Our collective Sportfolio picks are only posted in Discord NFL Premium. Sign up at BetKarma.com , follow, and get in the game!