NFL Prop Predictor - Week 9 HOU/JAC

Get access to our proprietary NFL Prop Predictor by signing up for NFL Premium or MVP by going to BetKarma.com/Premium. Each week I will focus on one of the matchups featured in the Prop Predictor and give my 2 cents on what the betting model is telling us. For Week 9, I will also be focusing on the Texans/Jaguars game.

 

HOUSTON TEXANS (-6.5) vs JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+6.5)

Over/Under 50

 

Jake Luton Over/Under 6.5 rushing yards (under -124)

Karma Grade: A+

Karma side: Over

NFL.com has Luton listed at 6’6’’ 224lbs, and he will not go down easy. The Jaguar offensive line ranks last in adjusted sack rate while Houston’s defensive line ranks 11th in adjusted sack rate. The Texans average 10.4 rushing yards/game to opposing QBs. Houston also allows 5.2 yards per rushing attempt. The Jaguars lead the league, (70.6%) in passing play rate, which should give Luton plenty of chances to scramble. The Karma projection is 8.02, which is a 26% difference than the implied total, making this the best prop of this game. Expect the rookie QB to rely on his legs when his pocket consistently collapses.

DJ Chark Jr Over/Under 3.5 receptions (under +130)

Karma Grade: A-

Karma side: Over

Houston will be without their best cornerback, Bradley Roby. Chark leads the team in target marketshare at 21% and 6.8 targets/game. Minshew lost his touch and was not able to provide a catchable ball leaving Chark at a 68% on target percentage. However, when the ball is catchable Chark has an 89% catch rate. Karma projections are at 4.19, but I believe it to be even higher now that Roby has been ruled out. Expect the Jaguars to ease their rookie QB into some short passes to their best WR and create chemistry quickly.

Deshaun Watson Over/Under 22.5 rushing yards (under -112)

Karma Grade: B+

Karma side: Over 

The Jaguars are allowing 23.8 rushing yards to opposing QBs. In the past three weeks Watson has increased his scrambles (2, 3, 6). In those past three weeks Watson is averaging 27.3 rushing yards. Last time Watson faced Jacksonville he only ran it twice but averaged 12.5 yards per carry. Houston’s offensive line is still having trouble protecting Watson and are 30th in adjusted sack rate. While Jacksonville does not sack the QB a lot they lead the league in QB knockdowns (11%). Karma projections are at 26.25 with a 20% difference than the implied total. With the offensive line still not helping Watson expect him to continue making plays with his feet.

Deshaun Watson Over/Under 286.5 passing yards (over -112)

Karma Grade: C+

Karma side: Under                       

Houston is 4th in the league for second half points, (14.6/game) and leads the league in fourth quarter points averaging 9.9/game. Houston is consistently trying to overcome deficits but what happens if they have leads? Houston is 26th in % of plays that were passes when leading by 7 or more. The Jaguars average lead is -8.26. Karma projections are 263.77 which is 22 yards less than what the oddsmakers have this prop at. I see Houston controlling this game, having a fair lead at halftime, and then playing conservative the second half.

James Robinson Over/Under 22.5 receiving yards (under -112)

Karma Grade: D

Karma side: Over 

Houston is allowing 37.4 receiving yards and 4 receptions to opposing running backs. Robinson averages 3.9 receptions/game and 32.1 receiving yards. For the season Robinson has 13.1% target marketshare, but the last three weeks has seen a slight increase at 16.7%. Robinson’s average snap rate this season is at 65%, but last week saw 90%. With a rookie QB we should also expect check downs. Karma projections are 23.71 and I think there is even more upside seeing how Jacksonville is giving Robinson more opportunities. As Robinson’s snap rate continues to increase I will continue to bet this.