Joey's NFL Primetime Props 11/09/20

What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my Prop Bets article. In this article I will be outlining one of my favorite prop bets of the day. To find my other prop bets and all of the other staff’s favorite bets make sure to sign up for the Premium package.

October Records:

NBA: 4-3 +2.6 units

MLB: 2-0 +2.01 units 

NFL: 28-24 +5.65 units

Total: 34-27 +9.26 units

September Record: 58-48 +25.91 units

October Record: 34-27 +9.26 units

November Record: 4-2 +1.78 units

All Prop lines are based on Draftkings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sports book.

La'Mical Perine UNDER 35.5 rushing yards -112 1.12 units to win 1 unit: This seems like a straight forward bet to me. They have begun using him in the running game more, but he has only gone over 36 rushing yards once this season. We are really predicting volume here as he is hovering around 3.6 yards per carry each of his last three games. During this stretch he has 7, 11, and 8 carries. With the Jets as 10-point underdogs tonight I am not expecting him to run more than 8 times. At 3.6 yards per carry, he should not crack 30 yards tonight.

The Patriots have been getting torched on the ground, giving up 140.3 rushing yards per game and 40% of the opposing teams yards coming form the ground. This ranks in the bottom five in both categories. One thing that is skewing the stat is game script. Since Cam developed Covid-19, the Patriots are 0-4 with an average margin of defeat of 13 points. Due to this, the Patriots rank 4th worst in rushing attempts allowed per game with 30. This makes it obvious why they are giving up so many yards. They have been great at getting contact with the runner early, only allowing a 9th best 1.24 yards before contact per carry. The Jets offensive line has been middle of the road in allowing yards before contact at 1.34.

In order for Perine to have a good game on the ground, he will need to break tackles and convert them for big gains. This shouldn’t be an issue as Perine is only averaging 2.54 yards after contact per rush. This ranks him 70th best in the league. Perine only has an avoided tackle on 9.7% of all rushing attempts, which would rank him 66th out of 95 qualifying backs. The numbers all point to an under for Perine tonight. As long as the Jets don’t get out to an early lead, this would lead to more rushing attempts for Perine. I had the under on Murray last night and of course the Saints got out to a 31-0 lead, which means more rushing attempts for a guy that should not have been running that much.