Joey's NFL Primetime Props 11/12/20
What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my Prop Bets article. In this article I will be outlining one of my favorite Prop bets of the day. To find my other prop bets and all of the other staff’s favorite bets make sure to sign up for the Premium package.
NBA: 4-3 +2.6 units
MLB: 2-0 +2.01 units
NFL: 28-24 +5.65 units
Total: 34-27 +9.26 units
September Record: 58-48 +25.91 units
October Record: 34-27 +9.26 units
November Record: 4-2 +1.78 units
All Prop lines are based on Draftkings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on time you are reading this or if you are using a different sports book.
Derrick Henry OVER 79.5 rushing yards -118 1.18 units to win 1 unit: This is probably the lowest number we will get of the season for Henry, so let’s take advantage of it. Don’t get me wrong, it is low for a reason. The Colts have been one of the best defenses in the league, but really haven’t played, any high-powered offenses like the Titans. It feels weird calling the Titans a high-powered offense, but there is a reason they are 6-2 and it’s not because of their defense. They rank 7th in PPG (29.0), they rank 10th in yards per game (384.6), 6th in rushing yards per game (147.6), 10th in red zone touchdowns a game (3.8), 4th in touchdowns per game (3.6), and 7th in points per play (0.452).
Indy is far from a cake walk, and is one of the best run defenses in the league. This is already baked into the prop and is the reason why his total is so low. Indy is allowing only 1.07 yards before contact, ranking second best in the league. They are allowing 25.2 rushing attempts per game (10th), 83.6 rushing yards per game (3rd), 3.3 yards per attempt (2nd), 42% of plays against them are running plays (17th), as well as only allowing 27% of all yards to be on the ground. These are all numbers you don’t want to take an over on a normal guy on the ground. That being said Henry is nowhere close to normal.
Derrick Henry is coming of his third game of the season of under 60% offensive snap count. He still saw 21 carries for 68 yards, with a long of 26 yards. The Bears were able to completely shut Henry down. Henry ranks second in the league with 3.51 yards after contact, and 31 broken tackles. He is averaging 4.6 yards per carry, so he is used to avoiding tacklers early into his runs. He is always a big play waiting to happen. Henry is second in the league, with seven carries of over 15 yards, leading to 26.7% of his yards being from big plays like that. Being at the top of the leaderboard is no new feat. Last year, he saw similar numbers leading him to the top of the leaderboards in the same categories. Ranking second in rushes over 15 yards, 5th in % of yards from runs over 15 yards, breaking the 4th most tackles in the league from rushing attempts, while ranking first in yards after contact.