NFL SUNDAY BLITZ REPORT - WEEK 10
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NFL SUNDAY BLITZ REPORT - WEEK 10

Zach James
11-13-2020

WELCOME TO WEEK 10’S SUNDAY BLITZ REPORT

Zach’s weekly NFL Sunday Blitz Report is – The GAME within the GAME – or your weekly guide to help you decide what to target within each NFL Sunday game. Whether it is a spread, money line, total, teaser, parlay or live trading a game, this article and the BLITZ CHEAT SHEET is here to help you decide where to put your focus, energy and most importantly – MONEY!

 

SEASON PERFORMANCE

SPREAD

TOTAL

EXOTIC

LIVE BET

GAME OF WEEK

20-14-1

11-11

20-9-1

4-3-4

3-1-4

 

WEEK 9 RECAP

Week 9 was the perfect rebound from the first losing week of the season in week 8. Altogether, the Blitz Report went 7-4 and the all-important Game of the Week cashed all sides! That brings Game of the Week to +2 on the season. Game of the Week is actually what some might call a max unit play meets a diversification over the same game, based on that projected game-script. If you were betting the Game of the Week at your max bet level of 5Units let’s say, you should be up around 10 units just on Game of the Week, give or take any partial plays lost on the pushes. So, thank you Teddy Bridgewater and Patrick Mahomes.

Spreads were up again in week 9, going 3-1 with the lone loser being the side that cost me personally thousands of dollars, being the last leg of some long-shot parlays, the Seattle Seahawks, wah wah. And worse yet, on the Sports Trading Desk Podcast you can even hear me talking about how horrible of a spot it was for Seattle, never mind the fact that their defense has been the worst in the NFL. Oh, well. We picked up Ravens, Giants and Saints, all seemingly with ease, as none of those lines were accurate all week.

Totals went 0-2, losing all Totals for the second week in a row, admittedly not a good look, as on the wrong sides of the Titan’s and Cardinal’s games.

Live Play, another option to stack +units (percent) if there is enough volatility, cashed with playing the down team on a comeback, which both teams were at one point, so plenty of good lines and opportunities to middle too on Raiders vs Chargers.

Exotics went 2-1, with the lone loser being the tease of the flat spot Steelers. The tease a big favorite down to only a TD is a clear signal to just take the underdog. Next time!

So, that brings the Blitz Report to 58 correct recommendations, 38 incorrect recommendations and 10 recommendations that got graded out as relative pushes – generally reserved for live plays or Game of the Week when only half of the suggestion comes to fruition.

Here is a recap of the cheat sheet from Week 9:

 

Now – for what you are here for, week 10!

WEEK 10

The primary plays worth considering are the following:

SPREAD

TOTAL

EXOTIC

LIVE BET

GAME OF WEEK

OFF GAME

4

2

3

1

2

0

FEATURED SPREAD PLAY

Broncos @ Raiders

Raiders are coming off two big, close wins and Broncos are getting no respect. I really liked and still like Raiders on the season, as I think this team is viewed and treated like a bottom 10 team, when they are a top 12 team. That said, Broncos getting 4 points against this Raiders defense is a must swallow the pride and take. As bad as the Broncos have played for 6 of the last 8 quarters on both sides of the ball, they have found ways to score at will late in games. Some toss that up to prevent defenses on the other side, but even so, it shows Broncos are capable of scoring. With the Raiders defense being one of the worst in the NFL, I just don’t think Raiders win by margin here. It’s a tough play, because Raiders should still win, but this line at 4 should be in play late for the Broncos. If this game goes into OT and Raiders win by 6. I will Venmo you $10 for following this play – just hit me up in Discord!

FEATURED TOTAL PLAY

49ers @ Saints

Over! I know, it feels wrong, but it’s so right. 49ers are still down like 8 starters on defense and now their starting safeties. Saints are healthy all-around, so I expect 30+ points from them, and just the game script alone should have the 49ers flirting with at least 20 by game’s end. Mullens is also turnover prone, so if Saints close in on 40 points, this game should be an easy cover to the Over 49.

FEATURED EXOTIC PLAY

Chargers @ Colts

Van Noy is out for the Dolphins, a captain of that defense, and I’m still not sure Tua is ready to be anointed. Chargers are capable at times on defense, and don’t lose by margin, so if I can get Chargers +7-8 points, it’s a no brainer in this spot. Yes, Chargers are going across country off another late loss that they probably should have pulled out, but Dolphins are peaking. If Dolphins handle business here, we are crossing the line into must fade mode the next game or two. Fair warning!

FEATURED LIVE PLAY

Bills @ Cardinals

This game is projected to have both teams over 27 points. So? We are going to get scoring in big plays and often. I lean Bills here, as I think this line should be flipped. Both teams are generally overrated, but Cardinals being -6 vs Dolphins by game time last week and -2 this week, something is off. This team is not better than the Dolphins and they sure as heck are not better than the Bills. And based on how the Bills were able to get turnovers on a similar QB in Russel Wilson, I think Bills defense can do just enough here to be the right side pre-game and look to build a position in game if go down.

OFF PLAY

Jags @ Packers

Can’t play Jaguars here, as just too cute on the road, in the cold, vs Rodgers. And not sure can lay almost 2 TDs in a game with what’s supposed to be very bad weather. I prefer to just lay off, unless Jaguars have a miraculous early lead and then I might blindly take Packers, if Rodgers is healthy.

GAME OF THE WEEK

2 Game of the Weeks for the first time this season!!

First up -- Seahawks @ Rams

These division rivals always play one another tough. I’d look for Rams to lead out and start hot with having the extra time to prepare, then get Seattle on a furious comeback that leaves this game hanging in the balance between who has the ball last. This total should dip during the first quarter too based on game-flow and how Rams play, so if goes below 51 (27-24) grab the over. If it dips significantly again, below 45 (24-21) grab the over. This is going to be a fun one come the 4th quarter!

Monday Night Special – Viking @ Bears

Move over Matt Nagy, your play-calling days are done! Hello Bill Lazor. This game is going to be low scoring no matter who calls the plays, as Bears give up right about 17-20 points a game and Vikings are the most run-dependent team in the NFL. Prime time Cousins vs. a good defense on the road also doesn’t bode well. But, what I think is the biggest advantage here is Vikings have not seen the new play-caller call plays, so like playing a new poker player, even if they suck, because they are unpredictable, the newb actually has a net advantage at times over even demonstrably better competition! It’s what some call “beginner’s luck,” but what it actually is is edge – can’t anticipate what is unpredictable. So Bears ML, Bears Spread, Under, Tease Both, Parlay Both, and Tease Both the other way. If Bears stifle Dalvin Cook, this game is in the bag for the Bears. If they can’t – get out of this position quickly.

CHEAT SHEET

Quick note on the Cheat Sheet, even if a game or side is marked with a clear SPREAD, TOTAL or EXOTIC etc., it does not mean there aren’t other viable options. Sometimes I will note that there are in fact more than one option worth considering. And remember – the Sportfolio trio:  Corey, Brett and I publish our locked in plays every week in the Premium Football channel on Bet Karma’s Discord.

If haven’t checked out the other 2/3’s of our Sportfolio trio, look out for Corey’s weekly handicapping article and Brett’s Sportfolio article, as well as catch our weekly NFL preview podcast The Sports Trading Desk on itunes, Stitcher or YouTube. Our collective Sportfolio picks are only posted in Discord NFL Premium. Sign up at BetKarma.com , follow, and get in the game!

*Note: The Blitz Report is posted within 24 hours of Sunday game-time except Week 1, so final allocations of the Sportfolios and Zach’s final recommendations can only be found in BetKarma.com Premium Discord Sunday mornings by 12pm EST.


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