Joey's NFL Primetime Props 11/19/20
What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my Prop Bets article. In this article I will be outlining one of my favorite Prop bets of the day. To find my other prop bets and all of the other staff’s favorite bets make sure to sign up for the Premium package.
NBA: 4-3 +2.6 units
MLB: 2-0 +2.01 units
NFL: 28-24 +5.65 units
Total: 34-27 +9.26 units
September Record: 58-48 +25.91 units
October Record: 34-27 +9.26 units
November Record: 12-7 +2.84 units
All Prop lines are based on Draftkings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on time you are reading this or if you are using a different sports book.
Carlos Hyde OVER 55.5 rushing yards +134 1 unit to win 1.34 units: I don’t normally like playing + props, but this one seems too good to be true, which probably means it is. Even with Carson expected to be out, the juice continues to side with the under. This doesn’t mean that the under is the right move, it just means that people are betting the under. Eventually, the value comes back to the over, which that is exactly what happened. People are still betting the under, while his rushing attempts are at 14.5 with only -124 juice coming to the under. We can assume he has an implied rushing attempts total of 14. That would mean he would need 3.9 yards per carry to get over this mark. If you want the under on Hyde, I would suggest playing the under 14.5 attempts instead of rushing yards. The value is better there. So, let’s take a look at the data.
The Seahawks have been letting Russ cook for too long and it appears he is now well done. They need to move him out of the kitchen and let the line cooks do some work. Hyde has a chance to take over as the main back tonight and easily hit this over. He has only one game with 10+ carries this season, because he really hasn’t had a game as the top back in the offense. Both Carson and Hyde were injured at the same time, but it is Hyde who is back first. They don’t feel comfortable giving Dallas many carries, which was evident last week. Alex Collins was brought up from the practice squad and given 11 carries.
The Cardinals also have an awful run defense, one of the worst in the league. They rank second to last in yards before first contact, allowing 2.62 yards before first contact. If he only needs 3.9 yards per carry and gets 14 carries, then 3.9 yards per carry with this yards before contact should be way too easy. Hyde doesn’t have a very big sample size this year, but last year he was great at avoiding tackles. He averaged 2.78 yards after contact and avoided a tackle on 16% of his runs. Hyde has always been more of a grind out yards kind of back. Last year he only had 25% of his yards come from runs more than 15 yards. Those only came from 8 of his rushing attempts.