Welcome To Week 11's Sunday Blitz Report

Zach’s weekly NFL Sunday Blitz Report is – The Game within the Game – or your weekly guide to help you decide what to target within each NFL Sunday game. Whether it is a spread, money line, total, teaser, parlay or live trading a game, this article and the Blitz Chea Sheet is here to help you decide where to put your focus, energy and most importantly – Money!

 

Season Performance

Spread	Total	Exotic	Live Bet	Game of Week
21-17-1	11-13	22-10-1	5-3-4	3-2-5

62-45-11 on season.

 

Week 10 Recap

Week 8 was the Blitz Report’s second to worst week, and it seems to have just gotten out of whack. No excuses though, let’s see where we went wrong.

There were 2 Game of the Weeks for the first time this season, and though I could have graded the Rams/Seahawks a slight push, I think it’s a loss due to the game script being wrong. As far as the Bears/Vikings, half of it, the low scoring part and it being a close game with great opportunity to get Vikings, did play out, but Bears was the wrong side, so it is a push.

Spreads went a putrid 1-3, but picking the Bucs game right, put me at 10-0 on the season picking their games. Can the trend continue?

Totals got 0 right AGAIN, for the 3rd week in a row. We are going to correct that this week. That is insane. Saints Over and Lions Under never made sense because the former has a good defense and the latter has a bad one. Flip the games, and we go 2-0.

Live Bet was a home run! Bills and Cardinals you would have mopped up on if just took both sides through ought the game. And with the line finishing at Card by 2, all kinds of sides should have hit and for the over.

Exotics, the tease of Eagles was a bad play from the start, as Giants was always the sharper side. Teasing Chargers saved us, where as, teasing Steelers never mattered.

Here is a recap of the cheat sheet from Week 10:

 

Now – for what you are here for, week 11!

 

WEEK 11

The primary plays worth considering are the following:

Spread	Total	Exotic	Live Bet	Game of Week	Off Game
4	3	3	1	1	1

Featured Spread Play

Rams @ Bucs

2 weeks agon Saints were featured to cover against the Bucs, and boy did they ever. Let’s run it back as they say, except this time a much worse off team in the Rams comes to town. Rams are not as good as everyone things, and I still think the market is a week off on predicting the Bucs up and down season. Bucs know they’ve struggled in late games and are preparing for this one with that in mind, and maybe the biggest key to this game of them all is Jared Goff is going to be under pressure. Goff under pressure, as we just saw three weeks ago, can be some of the worst quarterback play you will ever see – It’s that bad. Nathan Peterman bad. Remember the Super Bowl vs Tom Brady’s Patriots? It didn’t matter Tom struggled in that one, because the worst quarterback under pressure of all-time is Jared Goff, hyperbolically speaking of course. This is just a bad spot for Rams across the board, and a get right late night spot for Bucs. I bet it at -3, but I think this number should have opened at -6.

Featured Total Play

Dolphins @ Broncos

This line should be 38, yet it’s hanging around 45. I think both these teams play this game close to the vest, slow pace, running the ball and limiting mistakes. Limited mistakes turns into less short-fields and easy quick scores, which in turn lowers the end game total. I think Phins could pull this one out again, but I lean Broncos to cover and put this game around a 17-20 type affair.

Featured Exotic Play

Chiefs @ Raiders

Raiders defense is just not good enough to beat a healthy Chiefs team twice in a month. The Chiefs know this is probably their biggest game to sure up a potential 1 seed if comes down to them and Steelers, and so a maximum revenge effort is in order. And even if Chiefs got down 17-0, I would bet them on the comeback without batting an eye.  

Featured Live Play

Dallas @ Minnesota

This is a wait and see how these teams play. Minnesota is methodical, so they shouldn’t run away with this game early. If Cowboys are moving the ball and the defense is not getting gashed on the ground, I think Cowboys can cover 4-7 points and maybe even pull the upset. Without those two variables, I would lean off them and this game.

Off Play

Pitt @ Jacksonville

Last week Jags were also an off game, and because they play a stout Steeler front, and a Pitt team who may not even be motivated in this spot, nothing about this game is attractive.

Game of the Week

Green Bay @ Indianapolis

Though I don’t see this being a hugely scoring game, I think with Colts, and getting Green Bay live, and looking for a total drop in the first half to get the over provides a lot of good stacking opportunities in this game. Colts should win, as they match up well vs the Packers, my main hesitancy is their next game is against the Titans, so this could be a look ahead spot too.

Cheat Sheet

Quick note on the Cheat Sheet, even if a game or side is marked with a clear Spread, Total or Exotic etc., it does not mean there aren’t other viable options. Sometimes I will note that there are in fact more than one option worth considering. And remember – the Sportfolio trio:  Corey, Brett and I publish our locked in plays every week in the Premium Football channel on Bet Karma’s Discord.

If haven’t checked out the other 2/3’s of our Sportfolio trio, look out for Corey’s weekly handicapping article and Brett’s Sportfolio article, as well as catch our weekly NFL preview podcast The Sports Trading Desk on itunes, Stitcher or YouTube. Our collective Sportfolio picks are only posted in Discord NFL Premium. Sign up at BetKarma.com , follow, and get in the game!