NFL Prop Predictor - Week 11 ATL/NO

Get access to our proprietary NFL Prop Predictor by signing up for NFL Premium or MVP by going to BetKarma.com/Premium. Each week I will focus on one of the matchups featured in the Prop Predictor and give my two cents on what the betting model is telling us. For Week 11, I will be focusing on the Falcons/Saints game.

 

Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) vs New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

Over/Under 49

 

Russell Gage Over/Under 2.5 receptions (under +105)

Karma Grade: A+

Karma side: Over

Atlanta is expected to have Calvin Ridley back but that should not hurt this prop. This season Gage averages 5.8 targets/game with 3.9 receptions/game. Gage is handling 15% of the teams receiving marketshare (MS). Gage’s average depth of target (aDOT) is 7.94. Gage holds a 98.80 passer rating with Matt Ryan against zone coverages as opposed to his 66 against man coverage. 50% of the time New Orleans is running zone coverage which makes complete sense since you cannot just man cover Julio or Calvin.

Karma projects 3.76 receptions making this the best player prop for this game. Expect New Orleans to shift focus on Jones and Ridley leaving Gage open with plenty of opportunity in the passing game.

Brian Hill Over/Under 19.5 rushing yards (under -118)

Karma Grade: A+

Karma side: Over

This line is just too low for the volume Brian Hill receives. Hill averages 6.2 rushing attempts with 27 yards/game. Hill averages 4.2 yards per carry (YPC). The last three weeks Hill has averaged a slight uptick in rushing attempts at 7/game. He also averages 2.7 yards before his first contact. With a rushing MS of 22.1% the only way I see this not hitting is if Gurley has over 75% MS which has only happened once this season. The Saints rushing defense is allowing a league best 3.3 YPC, but even with that the volume would indicate 19.8 yards.

Karma projects 25.21 which is 6.71 more yards than the implied total. I know Saints have a great run defense, but this total is Brian Hill’s floor and with his current volume he should have no issues beating this.

Calvin Ridley Over/Under 59.5 receiving yards (under +106)

Karma Grade: B+

Karma side: Over

Ridley is having a breakout year! He is averaging 8.9 targets/game with 83 receiving yards/game. He has surpassed 59.5 receiving yards in 6 of his 8 games this year. Not only does he lead his team in air yards, but he leads the league in air yards at 125.3. Ridley has 28.3% of his targets above 20+ yards and holds a team MS of 24.5%.  New Orleans defense is getting targeted 4th most in the league for targets 20+ yards.

Karma projects 68.88 showing a 19% difference than the implied total. Matt Ryan loves to air it out and as we have seen many times before it only takes one.

Matt Ryan Over/Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (under +138)

Karma Grade: D

Karma side: Over 

80% of the touchdowns the Saints allow come through the air. They have allowed 20 passing touchdowns which is 4th most in the league. This year Ryan has averaged 1.77 touchdowns/game. However, against his division rivals, we see a slight increase averaging 1.88 touchdowns/game. The Saints are allowing opposing quarterbacks 2.22 touchdowns/game this season.

Our Karma projections have 1.77 which is a 21% increase from implied total. Ryan gets the dynamic duo back in Jones/Ridley. With the Saints having a stingy run defense, Ryan should have more passing opportunities to surpass this total.