Will's Best Bets - College Football - Week 12

2020 College Football Record:

12-4, +11.74 units

 

Best Bet of the Week: LSU (+14.5) at #5 Texas A&M

It hasn’t been the season the defending champs were looking for, and the Aggies have exceeded expectations this season. Texas A&M came in at #5 in the first College Football Playoff rankings. 

The Tigers are coming off of a big 27-24 win at Arkansas last week, and in that game, found the confidence they need going into the last few weeks of the season. 

After really struggling against Auburn in the Tigers previous game, QB TJ Finley looked comfortable in the pocket and turned in a solid performance. The freshman threw for 271 yards and 2 TDs, with no turnovers. 

LSU also got the running game going with Ty Davis Price going for 104 yards. He has rushed for over 100 in two of his last three games.

I’m just not sold on Texas A&M. I think this is the most overrated team in the country. Yes, give them credit, they beat Florida, but that’s it. Their other five wins were against teams with a combined record of 7-22. 

Also, the Aggies haven’t played in three weeks and could be very rusty. 

LSU has dominated this rivalry since A&M joined the SEC, winning seven of the eight matchups (only loss was that wild 7OT game in 2018.) Plus, the Tigers have covered in their last nine games against Texas A&M.

I wouldn’t be that surprised if LSU won this game outright, so giving 14 and a half to the Tigers has insane value.

The play: LSU +14.5 (-110), 2 units to win 1.82 units. 

 

For more plays, go premium. 

 

Mississippi State (+9.5) at Ole Miss

The Egg Bowl is here! And man, is it going to be fun.

We are seeing Leach vs. Kiffin for the first time, and I expect this game to be very close.

MSU freshman QB had the best game of his young career last week, putting up 346 yards and no throwing a pick against a very good Georgia defense.

This Ole Miss defense is very bad, so I think Rogers is able to find success again this week. 

The play: Mississippi State +9.5 (-110), 1 unit to win 0.9 units. 

 

Virginia at Florida State (+9.5)

The public leans UVA here but I think there’s value taking the Noles with the spread. The Cavs will be without some key starters, including sacks leader Charles Snowden. 

I expect FSU to keep it close.

The play: Florida State (+9), 1 unit to win 0.9 units