Bales' Best NFL Bet (Week 12)

Welcome to my newest edition of Bales' Best NFL Bet. In this article, I will outline my favorite bet for Week 12 of the NFL season. You can also find all of Bet Karma's staff bets through our NFL Premium Package. 

Keep in mind, you should always be shopping sportsbooks for the best price. Some props will be a few yards different while some spreads could be an entire point different. Getting the best number possible is one main key to being a successful bettor. 

 

Cleveland Browns (-315) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (+270)

The Cleveland Browns will take on the Jacksonville Jaguars this weekend. Cleveland is currently a 7 point favorite in a game set at 48.5 points, and they boast an implied team total of 27.8 points. 

Nick Chubb’s dealt with injuries throughout the 2020 season, playing in only six games thus far. He owns 575 yards and 5 touchdowns on 96 carries, averaging 6.0 yards per carry on the season. Chubb’s played normal snaps in 5 of his 6 games this season, playing only 18% of the snaps before getting injured against the Dallas Cowboys. In those 5 games, he’s averaging 106.4 rushing yards on 18 carries per game. He was also limited in a blowout loss against the Baltimore Ravens, and he posted 100+ rushing yards in each of his other contests. 

Due to injury, Chubb’s only played 28% of the offensive snaps this season. Surprisingly, he’s only played between 43% and 62% of the offensive snaps in his 5 healthy games. With that being said, Chubb continues to be featured in the offense. He’s turned 30.1% of the carries into 36.7% of the rushing yards and 50% of the rushing touchdowns. 

Chubb gets an elite matchup against Jacksonville this weekend. The Jaguars are allowing 129.1 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry. They’ve also given up 13 rushing touchdowns through 10 games. 

Unsurprisingly, Chubb continues to be one of the most physical running backs in the NFL, ranking second in yards after contact per attempt (2.9). He also ranks fourth in attempts per broken tackle (8.0). Jacksonville is giving up 1.43 yards per carry before contact, as well. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Cleveland has the second-largest offensive/defensive line advantage in the run game on this slate. 

Efficiency isn’t likely to be an issue for Chubb, who has been one of the most efficient options in the NFL this season. The only concern is his workload. He doesn’t play major snaps, but that hasn’t stopped Cleveland from consistently giving him work when he’s on the field. I’m expecting him to find success late in this game as the Browns run out the clock, allowing him to go over an already high rushing total. 

Bet 1.1 units on Nick Chubb over 89.5 rushing yards (-110) to win 1 unit

 

2020 NFL Season Record - 28-28 (+1.01 unit)