NFL Prop Predictor - Week 12 LAC/BUF
Get access to our proprietary NFL Prop Predictor by signing up for NFL Premium or MVP by going to BetKarma.com/Premium. Each week I will focus on one of the matchups featured in the Prop Predictor and give my two cents on what the betting model is telling us. For Week 12, I will be focusing on the Chargers/Bills game.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (+4.5) vs BUFFALO BILLS (-4.5)
Josh Allen Over/Under 285.5 passing yards (over -112)
Karma Grade: A+
Karma side: Under
While Allen is currently averaging 287.1 passing yards/game, the Chargers defense is only allowing 228.7 passing yards/game. This is third least in the league. The Chargers defense is also third in the league for passing completion percentage allowing just 62.1%.
Allen has surpassed this total six times this season. However, he surpassed it twice against the Jets (30th in passing yards allowed), and once against the Seahawks (32nd in passing yards allowed), and once against the Raiders (28th in passing yards allowed).
One thing the Chargers do well is control the clock. They are 2nd in the league for time of possession with 32:30.
Karma projects 230.59 yards. This is a 26% difference from the implied total, making this the best prop of the game. Chargers are expecting the secondary to get stronger this week by getting Chris Harris Jr back. I see the Chargers trying to slow down the game, and keep Allen off the field, and limit his opportunities.
Josh Allen Over/Under 34.5 rushing yards (under -112)
Karma Grade: B+
Karma side: Over
Allen averages 7.2 rushing attempts/game. The Chargers defense is 7th in the league for hurry percentage at 11.1%. They are dead last in blitz percentage at 15.7%, and are bottom ten in the league for sacks this season. This tells me the defensive line puts pressure on the quarterback and forces them outside the pocket.
Allen currently averages 22.8% of rushing marketshare (MS) but in his last four week it has been bumped to 28.4%.
Karma projects 39.99 rushing yards making it the second highest difference for this game at 20%. I am anticipating with Chris Harris Jr back, Allen will have a more difficult time through the air and will have to be making plays on the ground. Also, keep in mind that Allen ran a 4.7 40-yard dash and could only take him one play to reach this.
Justin Herbert Over/Under 15.5 rushing yards (over -112)
Karma Grade: C+
Karma side: Over
Herbert averages 4.4 rushing attempts/game with 20.8 rushing yards/game. The Bills are allowing opposing quarterbacks 24 rushing yards/game and 4.6 rushing attempts/game. This stems from the Bills 36.5% blitz percentage which is 7th most in the league.
Much like the Chargers getting Chris Harris Jr back the Bills get their stud cornerback, Josh Norman, back as well. This should close some of the passing windows Herbert could have.
Karma projects 18.53 rushing yards which is 13% more than the implied total. With the number of blitzes Buffalo brings I see Herbert scrambling at least three times. With a top cornerback returning for Buffalo and consistent blitzes expect Herbert forced to scramble more and surpass this total.
Devin Singletary Over/Under 13.5 receiving yards (under -112)
Karma Grade: C-
Karma side: Over
Singletary averages 2.5 targets/game with 12.2 receiving yards/game. The Chargers are allowing opposing running backs 35.3 receiving yards/game. The Chargers are also allowing 7th most targets to running backs. The Bills are above average for passes behind the line of scrimmage at 15.9%.
The only hesitation with not slamming this prop is Singletary sharing snaps with Zack Moss. However, it appears Moss is being used more for runs than passes.
Karma projects 14.47 which is a hair over the total. If we see Singletary go back to 60% snaps, as opposed to his current 50/50, he should have no issues reaching this total. Teams having been targeting their running backs through the air against the Chargers defense. I expect Singletary to see a slight increase in targets giving him plenty of opportunity to beat the total.