WELCOME TO WEEK 12’S SUNDAY BLITZ REPORT

Zach’s weekly NFL Sunday Blitz Report is – The GAME within the GAME – or your weekly guide to help you decide what to target within each NFL Sunday game. Whether it is a spread, money line, total, teaser, parlay or live trading a game, this article and the BLITZ CHEAT SHEET is here to help you decide where to put your focus, energy and most importantly – money! Let’s look at the options that provide the most opportunity and value within a given game.

 

SEASON PERFORMANCE

SPREAD	TOTAL	EXOTIC	LIVE BET	GAME OF WEEK
23-19-1	12-15	23-11-1	6-3-4	4-2-5

 

WEEK 11 RECAP

Week 11 ended up proving to be another positive week, going 7-5 overall, which is misleading because the two +EV plays, Live Bet and Game of the Week BOTH cashed. Game of the Week was Colts and Packers, leaning Colts, and with how huge Colts got down in the first half and the volatility into OT, you should have made as much money as you could tolerate risk on. Live Bet had a lean on Cowboys, prefaced with if Cowboys would come out stable on defense and capable on offense, and based on game script, would have had all game to grab Cowboys +money and +spread.

Spreads went 2-2, with the Bucs being the first miss fire on a Bucs game all season, ending my 10-0 streak. Philadelphia’s Wentz dumpster fire was also a big whiff, but we can call it even with a super sharp pick in Carolina and the Jets.

Totals FINALLY got off the trash heap and got a win with the almost too easy to predict under on Broncos v Miami, but we did whiff on Ravens Under and Saints Over.

Exotics went 2-1, and because we teased Chiefs down, that play hit. Patriots was the wrong side, and Skins might have needed that tease in the end if Burrow was not knocked out of the game.

That brings the Blitz Report to 69-50-11 on the season, and most importantly Game of the Week to 4-2-5.

Now – for what you are here for, week 12!

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WEEK 12

The primary plays worth considering are the following:

SPREAD	TOTAL	EXOTIC	LIVE BET	GAME OF WEEK	OFF GAME
4	2	3	2	1	1

FEATURED SPREAD PLAY

Chargers @ Bills

Chargers are getting some help back on defense and Bills are seeing key injuries left and right. Chargers may also have some Austin Ekkler in this game, and so if the Bills continue to play defense as they have all season, Chargers should put up a lot of points and this game could come down to the final drive - a Chargers special.

FEATURED TOTAL PLAY

Dolphins @ Jets

Darnold is back, his weapons are healthy, and the Dolphins offense welcomes back in Fitzmagic. If Darnold can play as we know he can and has in the past, Jets come into this game able to score with the Dolphins. If Tua was the QB, I'd prefer an under 44.5, but because Fitzmagic is in, who is more turnover prone and big play likely, I think Dolphins find close to 27 points and Jets over 20.

FEATURED EXOTIC PLAY

Chicago @ Green Bay

Tease Chicago and the Under. These teams play each other tough as is, so with the Bears having extra rest, Chicago should have a chance to cover here in a tight game that shouldn’t see more than 50 points under any circumstance.

FEATURED LIVE PLAY

Carolina @ Minnesota and Titans @ Colts

Carolina and Titans should have a chance to win these games, therefore leading out or finding value on both in game is a good starting point. Seeing if can get a better price on Vikings and Colts in game, should lead to a middling opportunity on both. I think Vikings are more likely of the two games to get a blow-out win, but I can see both underdogs pulling the upsets too.

GAME OF THE WEEK

Raiders @ Falcons

Neither of these teams have great defenses, and so Atlanta should rebound offensively and Raiders should score at will. I lean a Falcons cover at better than +3, preferably 6 or 7, and if Raiders go down, I think they are definitely capable of a comeback to cut it close, if not outright win. Even Jon Gruden admitted he is clueless as to how this Falcons team is 3-7, saying it is the best 3-7 team he has ever seen.

CHEAT SHEET

If haven’t checked out the other 2/3’s of our Sportfolio trio, look out for Corey’s weekly handicapping article and Brett’s Sportfolio article, as well as catch our weekly NFL preview podcast The Sports Trading Desk on itunes, Stitcher or YouTube. Our collective Sportfolio picks are only posted in Discord NFL Premium. Sign up at BetKarma.com , follow, and get in the game!